Africa's largest cellular operator, MTN, expects to add another 18.4 million subscribers to its base this year, despite political unrest in some of the countries in which it operates.
MTN had previously anticipated adding 16.9 million new subscribers during the year, but revised its guidance in a subscriber number update to the market this afternoon. Most of the gains are expected to come from Iran, where the company hopes to add as many as another 850 000 users.
The company says it ended the three months to March with 147.3 million subscribers, a 4% increase on the 141.6 million customers the company had at the end of December. MTN says it “continued to perform well, despite aggressive competition and heightened political unrest in certain countries in the Middle East and West Africa”.
According to MTN, the subscriber bases of the three regions in which it operates continued to grow at marginally different rates. However, the subscriber contribution from each region was relatively unchanged compared with the previous quarter.
The South and East Africa (SEA) region contributed 22% of all subscribers, unchanged from December, while West and Central Africa (WECA) accounted for 45%, a slight decline on the 46% reported in December. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region contributed 33%, up from 32% at December.
Mixed bag
SEA increased its subscriber base by 3.2% for the quarter. SA accounts for 58% of the region's subscribers and grew 1.9%, to 19.2 million customers. MTN lost market share, because of increased competition, in the prepaid segment.
MTN says the “growth was slower than expected as a result of higher prepaid disconnections due mainly to seasonality, although some distribution difficulties also contributed”. Uganda increased its subscriber base 6.9%, to 6.9 million, and kept its leading position in an “increasingly competitive market”.
WECA increased its subscriber base 3.4% for the quarter. MTN attributes the growth to gains in Nigeria and Ghana, which account for the bulk of subscribers in the region. Nigeria recorded a 4% growth to take its base to 40 million, while Ghana grew at the same rate to a base of nine million.
Cameroon recorded negative net additions of 203 000, following a regulatory requirement to disconnect 306 000 unregistered subscribers at the end of March 2011.
Cote d'Ivoire increased its subscriber base marginally to 5.4 million as a result of the political and social instability. “Although there seems to be resolution of the political dispute, the civil unrest has had a negative impact on the country and normalisation of the operation is expected to take some time,” says MTN.
In Guinea Conakry, MTN's assets have been placed under the administration of the regulator, after a dispute relating to fees allegedly owed to authorities, says MTN.
“MTN's operations in Guinea Conakry, Areeba, are negotiating in good faith with the government. We are confident that both parties will reach an amicable solution that will be in the best interest of all the stakeholders affected, including the millions of MTN subscribers in Guinea,” says MTN.
MENA recorded a 5.5% increase in subscribers for the quarter, which MTN attributes to Iran, which accounts for 66% of the region's base and grew 5.5% to 31.4 million.
Syria increased its subscribers by less than 1%, to 4.9 million. MTN says the licence conversion process is on track, although it will be delayed as a result of the present unrest in the country.
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