Predictable perspectives

The first day of the Hotspot 2004 conference provided a microcosm of the attitudes that exist in the industry towards mobile and wireless technologies. And that is as expected. The conference did, after all, attract some of the foremost exponents in this area of technology, and so it was to be expected that the day was representative of the market and industry.

If only it weren`t all so predictable! I found the positions of some of the vendors insufferably predictable, in their eternal quest to promote an offering. And I found the wide range of opinions, where opposite stances coexisted quite comfortably around the same table, utterly predictable.

Was I expecting it to be any different? Of course not, otherwise I wouldn`t call it predictable. But for the sake of the customer, who needs certainty on which technology to invest in, at the right point of maturity and with full future-proof compatibility, I expect vendors to talk turkey. To praise one`s own technology without exception is insulting and bad policy where a trust relationship with users should be a seller`s main concern. It is, quite frankly, useless to anyone listening.

I found two notable exceptions in all the predictability that I bemoan today. Firstly, speakers did in several cases come through splendidly, with some of the most lucid and valuable perspectives I have heard for a long time in mobile and wireless. Secondly, and less welcome, one could discern some odd contradictions in the stance of some suppliers.

Telkom`s attitude has been and remains contradictory. After months of industry stagnation on the WiFi front, thanks mostly to Telkom failing to implement any hotspots (merely warning contenders about its supposed "sole right" to provide them), the Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) finally provided clarity with a ruling which declared other hotspot providers legal.

To praise one`s own technology without exception is insulting and bad policy where a trust relationship with users should be a seller`s main concern.

Carel Alberts, Technology editor, ITWeb

So when this market finally "opened up", Telkom made a predictable, late and almighty scramble to contest this market, along with a few others (among them M-Web and Wireless-g). Suddenly, after months of frustrating other would-be service providers, and helped in its quest by a deafening silence from ICASA, it was one of the most aggressive WiFi players. Telkom has rolled out an astounding 60 T-Zone hotspots since then, and the goal is to equip 100 by July.

Which is all very well, even if the whole palaver doesn`t seem to have the interests of the rest of the industry, and hence the customer, at heart. But does this sudden rush tally at all with Telkom`s blas'e opinion of the current value of WiFi? "It won`t save any company financially, but it is an important future technology," said a spokesperson at the conference. A hundred hotspots - that`s a lot of investment in something that is guaranteed to give no return any time soon. (Hotspot owners are agreed that visitor numbers are paltry.)

Well, all I can say is that it must be nice to be able to spend so much on a future uncertainty. Since we`ve wasted so much time already on deciding WiFi regulations, we may have missed the boat entirely and have to start looking at investing in metropolitan area WiFi (WiMAX) instead.

It`s always entertaining for a journalist to prod an industry spokesperson for comment and watch the predictability issue forth. One such luminary at the conference threatened to alter every conviction I have about "trade" media spokespersons, when it seemed he couldn`t put a foot wrong in any of the comments he made. He had rare insights in every issue the audience bombarded the panel with. His reasoning was flawless. His conclusions were of the highest value. But when asked which technology - cellular GPRS, Sentech`s UMTS (essentially a 3G technology) or WiFi - would prevail, he went with what he sells - WiFi.

There are several reasons why WiFi won`t be the only technology to populate future mobile scenarios. About the safest thing I can say on the topic is that there will always be an ecosystem of technologies from which to choose to connect your device. Eventually, their operation and hand-off may even be seamless. In SA today, we have a choice between connection methods almost anywhere we go in the country, no matter if things are a bit clunky, the technology is a tad unstable, the networks don`t offer enough bandwidth and the coverage is a mite spotty.

Any one of these technologies is not the sole answer to all our wireless needs. Even if WiFi is the only world standard. Even if US deployment has exploded.

So unfortunately, aside from an otherwise perfect scorecard, I have to fault the said unnamed spokesperson on this one crucial point. I think I`ll stick to making up my own mind. At least I`ll never know what the outcome is likely to be.