If one takes the current trends to their natural conclusion, everyone will end up being online all the time and the costs will be punitive. This is according to Unison Strategic Business Development Director Keith Jones.
That will take some time; we are only just getting the fibre-optic undersea cables in place, the current mobile infrastructure is creaking and groaning, the in-ground infrastructure is ageing, the access to white space has yet to play out, and many of the key players in the space have yet to make convincing plays into the new converged markets and show they are capable of offering services outside of their traditional sectors.
The markets are converging and most of the larger players are claiming to be all things to all people, but like any large corporate, they are unwieldy and have deep pockets; a vision or a good marketing team is just not enough.
We will probably have to look to the current trendsetter in the sector to perhaps see how it should be done. Apple, of course. Apple's success lies in many areas, but at the end of the day, it offers simple solutions that are elegant and functional. The perfect blend of form meets function.
The other thing Apple excels at is controlling the whole user experience so it can guarantee the quality of the finished product into the hands of the consumer. It likes to control all aspects of the cycle - hardware and operating system, through to the sales and distribution of the devices and apps. In short, it is not good at sharing.
There is no doubt Apple and all of us see the future in the cloud. If the rumours of Apple acquiring a major telecoms player such as AT&T materialises, then this would be the full stack offering that will elevate it beyond its current leadership position to one of unquestioned dominance.
That the major carriers will continue to be squeezed, there is no doubt. Margins will diminish drastically as the market converges. The end result will be a true end-to-end Apple experience that is both highly appealing and virtually unassailable.
With the margins it is on, it could easily afford to pass the minutes on at an incredibly low rate or even free. There will be little or no viable defence against this play from the other players.
Controlling the whole user experience and bundling minutes in will guarantee the success of iCloud, and will also guarantee the dominance of the iPad and iPhone in their respective sectors and ensure the iApp market moves further and further ahead.
We can assume the likes of Microsoft and Google are not fast asleep and will have some response to this, but Apple is already ahead of the game and has shown it can execute.
Whether this plays out this way or not, time will tell, but this is the reality of the converged market. We in South Africa, of course, will be left in the cold to some extent as this market plays out; we are just not strategic enough.
But the same rules will apply; this is classic Theory of Constraints (TOC) thinking. If you control the whole supply chain, you can sacrifice margin in some areas and get it back in others, as you are able to produce a superior product at a lower price. The market drivers will be the same for us here in South Africa, but the way it plays out will, as always, be slightly different.
Who will survive and who will thrive? The larger players are not agile and usually not very good at moving outside their sectors. The smaller players are more agile and will quickly jump on any opportunity, but lack the size and footprint to execute well in this sector. It is a big boys game.
South Africa is quite unique in the way the economy works in that over 90% of the business market can be covered through three main urban centres. This will certainly help the smaller players enter the sector. The economies of scale then put the market in reach of the mid-sized players, so the obvious strategy will be to offer fully converged offerings through these centres.
The problems are that if the smaller players continue to play within their niches, they will come under price pressures and their businesses will become unviable. The big players will offer the whole shebang, but will not be that good at delivery.
Who to choose? Is it worth trying to unpack this dynamic market and pick a winner now? Do we need to? The answer is probably not. The market is changing, but we as businesses are not changing at the same rate as the market.
We do have the luxury of time and choice, the decision need not be agonised over. As long as the business has a defined enterprise communications strategy in place and is laying down the foundations for the future in a planned and structured way, then you should be able to reap the rewards in the short term while not taking your business down a technology cul-de-sac.
Mobility is the name of the game now, but portability will define the market of the future. As long as the foundation is laid, navigating the minefield need not be that difficult.
For more information, visit www.unison.co.za.
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Unison
Unison is a total communications management company with 28 years' experience both locally and internationally, with in excess of 11 000 installations globally. It is renowned for its pioneering work in the enterprise communications management industry, continuously developing specialised solutions that help customers track, control and manage their communications costs.
Unison has provided the leading South African businesses the ability to effectively manage their communications infrastructure. It provides the most up to date and detailed analysis on how communications technology is and should be utilised within an organisation.
The company has been developing specialised solutions that have helped customers track, control and manage their communications costs. Unison's accreditation and certification with market leaders such as Cisco, Avaya, Microsoft and Siemens ensure seamless integration into both existing and new environments.
Some of the biggest challenges facing ICT managers in current market conditions is managing multiple vendors and understanding the vast range of complex and diverse ways in which communications services are being billed, while simultaneously controlling or reducing costs. Unison's total communications management solutions fulfil the role of a true strategic telecommunications partner with the latest in innovative design and ideas.
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