Riding the wireless wave

M-commerce is already a billion-dollar industry, wireless workers are becoming an acceptable alternative to the usual desk-bound workday scenario and wireless technology solutions are being seen as serious problem-solvers. However, the constant debate on which technology standard will eventually rule supreme and how best to meet consumer demands for mobile wizardry may put a spanner in the wireless works.

Forrester Research predictions carried in Transaction Magazine in August 2002 show that m-commerce will account for $7.5 billion in sales during 2003. Forrester says this will climb to $22 billion in 2005. Its figures are a tad more optimistic than DataMonitor`s. In a report released in 2000, also referred to by Transaction Magazine, this research house states that m-commerce-facilitated transactions will amount to $5 billion this year and $8.5 billion in 2005. Frost & Sullivan has gone even further than Forrester Research: it expects m-commerce sales of $15 billion this year and $24 billion by 2005.

While these predictions centre around m-commerce, they are a reflection of the many disparities in opinion around the uptake of wireless technologies by consumers and corporates. Although there is little doubt among local and international mobile technology players as to whether the wireless market as a whole is on the up and up, there is some disagreement as to which technologies will grow in usage, in which industry sectors and by how much.

Graham Grewcock, national sales director at RangeGate, is on record as saying his company has experienced a sharp increase in activity in the wireless space and that he expects this growth trend to continue. "There is certainly a renewed drive within companies to empower the mobile worker to take more responsibility and ownership," he says.

There is certainly a renewed drive within companies to empower the mobile worker to take more responsibility and ownership.

Graham Grewcock, national sales director, RangeGate

RangeGate is an 83.6%-owned subsidiary of JSE Securities Exchange-listed IT and networking giant Datatec.

Among the wireless options RangeGate believes will start making inroads is general packet radio service (GPRS), which it predicts will mainly be used by companies to enable mobile workforces to capture information while out of the office and update their back-office systems in real-time.

GPRS facilitates instant communications and has a theoretical maximum speed of up to 171.2kbps - faster than the data transmissions over today`s fixed telecommunications networks and current circuit switched data services on GSM networks. This connectivity option experienced an upsurge in popularity a few years back and many vendors approached it enthusiastically.

"The expectations around GPRS initially were that everything could be sent over GPRS and that it would provide continuous connectivity for everyone," says Ron Pienaar, MD at MineWorx. "The architecture was not well understood and only now are people beginning to understand that GPRS is good for low volume/bandwidth data."

MineWorx specialises in mobile technology, including Internet browsing via personal digital assistant (PDA) and wireless application protocol, PDA applications and other mobile devices across various protocols.

Pienaar points out that GPRS does have drawbacks. "While it [GPRS] can be used for e-mail and browsing on a mobile device, it is much more expensive than using GSM data call - either circuit switched data or high-speed circuit switched data - which provides a broader and more cost-effective connection. Synchronisation of data and/or applications as we commonly know it when docking your PDA would not be practical using GPRS. The data would need to be packaged intelligently to be effective for GPRS."

However, GPRS can be an ideal "fit" in particular industries where instant on-off communications are required, says Pienaar. He cites, as an example, a vehicle tracking system where information on a vehicle`s location, speed, route, etc, is required. GPRS also lends itself effectively to applications other than those related to the transport industry. "We have successfully run pilot projects and are developing two major GRPS applications for delivery in a few months time. One is for a major distributor in the building industry and the other is being developed for a mining group."

The expectations around GPRS initially were that everything could be sent over GPRS and that it would provide continuous connectivity for everyone.

Ron Pienaar, MD, MineWorx

He says a third proposal is being fleshed out for a national service organisation and several other initiatives are in the pipeline.

Pienaar states: "GPRS will be the mobile vehicle communication basis for the majority of our solutions in the short- to medium-term." He says price has been and will continue to be this connectivity option`s major inhibiting factor. "It is expensive when used incorrectly and you cannot use GPRS and GSM simultaneously as GSM takes priority on the device or mobile phone."

Most cellphone manufacturers are starting to include GPRS functionality on new models. Brian Burns, product marketing manager at Motorola Southern Africa, says that "over 90% of our current cellular offerings incorporate GPRS, always on, always online Internet access".

Burns says the network operators have moved swiftly to incorporate GPRS in their product spread. "MTN and Vodacom have both released GPRS services to their contract subscriber base and Cell C is expected to come on board later this year."

There is, however, still significant scope for growth here, says Burns. "These advanced data services are currently only available to postpaid consumers, which represent less than 10% of the total cellular subscriber base in SA. We would like to see these advanced services offered to the prepaid subscribers in SA, which would significantly accelerate growth in this area."

Burns says Motorola has seen "definite interest from some of the large corporates in the banking and insurance sectors" in implementing wireless technology solutions during the past 18 months. To date, however, these have only resulted in "small incremental sales. We believe that this is due to the fact that the key decision-makers in these organisations are currently focused on providing fixed and not mobile IT solutions."

As far as the uptake of m-commerce is concerned, he says Motorola has been "actively involved in this area for the past three to four years. Up to now the only uptake we have seen has been limited to the majority of financial institutions providing small-scale solutions on the SIM card. This is due to the fact that the majority of the cellular market has access to SMS.

"Unfortunately this is relatively expensive mechanism to use for the amount of data you need to transfer from the financial institutions to the cellular handsets and in our view not really that practical for mass-market consumption. Where we would see m-commerce really start to become a significant player is when all consumers get GPRS access and embedded microbrowsers that are capable of supporting the security standards that the financial institutions require. We only foresee this starting to happen at the end of 2004."

Over 90% of our current cellular offerings incorporate GPRS, always on, always online Internet access.

Brian Burns, product marketing manager, Motorola Southern Africa

Motorola launched more new handsets with GPRS functionality at the CeBIT trade show in Germany earlier this year. Among the other manufacturers that have included this connectivity option on new releases is Samsung. Samsung South Africa will soon launch its SGH-S300, a GPRS-enabled handset which it believes will appeal to both business and personal users.

Other new GPRS-enabled devices are also entering the market. Symbol Technologies, which punts itself as a leader in enterprise mobility solutions, launched two handheld computers featuring advanced GPRS wide area network communications at CeBIT. The PDT 8037 and PDT 8056, says Symbol, are "ideal for logistics applications throughout the supply chain, especially route accounting and field service automation, where instantaneous access to mission-critical information is essential to the mobile workforce".

In addition to GPRS functionality, the PDT 8056 provides dual-mode connectivity incorporating 802.11b wireless local area network communications. This solution, says the company, allows users to seamlessly alternate between LAN and GPRS communications, making it cost-effective.

Mike Richardson, wireless product development manager at Symbol Technologies Africa, believes: "GPRS will certainly take off, as the market begins to adopt the technology. This will fill a gap in the wireless needs of some companies, which need mobile data connections, even while away from the office. Certainly we see the local service providers making bold steps to encourage the adoption of GPRS, and we support that fully."

Staying in the cellular space, many wireless technology players feel that 3G is the "biggest technology going nowhere". Richardson says local inhibitors to growth in this area in the short- to medium-tem include "the vast capital outlay on existing 2G and 2.5G networks, which the service providers are not likely to rip out in the next few years. Also, 3G is expensive and requires a significant amount of hi-tech hardware."

He believes 2.5G will provide for SA`s mobile data needs for at least the next three years. "The current market needs are not nearly ready for 3G."

Wi-Fi, or 802.11b, a standard for wireless LANs operating in the 2.4GHz spectrum offering transmission speeds up to 11Mbps, is faring somewhat better. Fred Hoare, technical director at RangeGate, believes more companies will invest in 802.11 wireless networks in 2004 as this technology has now matured. Richardson states: "The uptake of Wi-Fi has been exceptional. The market growth is better than expected and still going strong."

He`s more cautious when it comes to 802.11a, a standard for wireless LANs operating in the 5GHz frequency range with a maximum data rate of 54Mbps. "802.11a is not happening in SA yet, as ICASA [the Independent Communications Authority of SA] seems to be uncertain about approving this technology. By and large, we do not see any demand for 802.11a, as Wi-Fi devices are providing very well for most applications. I do not, however, see 802.11a making any significant growth, for at least the next year."

As far as Bluetooth is concerned, Richardson`s opinion coincides with that of the majority of players in the wireless market. "Bluetooth is not going to make any significant inroads into the corporate space due to its inherent design, which is geared for the consumer market, and is unsuitable for medium to large corporate wireless needs."

The uptake of Wi-Fi has been exceptional. The market growth is better than expected and still going strong.

Mike Richardson, wireless product development manager, Symbol Technologies Africa

That it is being put to use by a significant number of cellphone users is evidenced by the inclusion of Bluetooth technology on handsets by most cellphone manufacturers. Given that research firm Gartner Dataquest estimates that 423 million handsets were sold to consumers in 2002 and some 1 billion people around the world now use cellphones, Bluetooth seems set to remain a technology with definite commercial potential, despite that fact that it is unlikely to generate much interest within corporate networks.

However, no matter what the technology choice may be, industry players continue to stress that the success of any wireless solution rests on correctly assessing the end-user`s requirements and concerns. Forrester Research states that the main obstacles preventing consumers from adopting m-commerce remain the same, ie credit card security concerns and a fear of a "clunky" user experience. Local companies that manage to effectively map their business requirements around wireless technologies will be the ultimate winners in this space.