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Robust mobile growth in Middle East

By Vanessa Haarhoff, ITWeb African correspondent
Johannesburg, 04 Sept 2007

The Middle East and Gulf (MEG) mobile markets grew to around 80 million subscriptions at the end of March 2007, with mobile penetration levels reaching close to 35%.

This is according to research figures from Informa Telecoms and Media's World Cellular Information Services (WCIS).

The combined Middle East, Gulf and North Africa (MEGNA) mobile telecommunications market grew by more than 47%, between March 2006 and 2007.

Informa Telecoms and Media's WCIS forecasts total subscriptions in the MEG region will reach around 85 million by the end of 2007, climbing to more than 117 million by the end of 2011.

The entire region recorded $8.1 billion in revenue from mobile telecommunications. The sector grew 18% last year and contributed 3% to gross domestic product, explains Abdul Ghafar, research analyst for the MEGNA market.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are market leaders when it comes to GSM market share, explains Ghafar. Saudi Arabia recorded over 22 million subscriptions between March 2006 and 2007. Iran reached 18 million subscriptions, followed by Iraq with seven million.

Looking east

Ghafar notes that Saudi Arabia is the fast growing economy in the region, with a mobile telecommunications penetration of 80%.

Solutions and strategies on how to harness this growth were discussed over the weekend at the MEG GSM Conference, in Dubai, says Ghafar.

"Although the mobile telecommunications market is semi-saturated, operators are still highly interested in investing in these markets because of the extremely high ARPUs [average revenue per user]," he says.

Telecommunications operator MTC, for example, spent $6.11 billion on the third GSM licence in Saudi Arabia this year.

Mobile penetration rates in the other wealthy Gulf countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE - are in excess of 100%. "Operators within these markets are looking further east to secure GSM opportunities and further revenue growth."

GSM alternatives

Ghafar notes that mobile telecommunication operators in the MEGNA regions are looking at alternative markets as GSM market saturation is beginning to show.

Wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) subscriptions are forecast to increase to capture further revenue growth in the region. "The alternative technologies are set to capture revenue growth in an already saturated GSM market," he explains.

WCDMA subscriptions in the region saw a marked increase in 2006 as the more penetrated markets in the Gulf sought new technology as a means to gain new streams of revenue growth, according to an Informa Telecoms and Media Web site.

At the end of March 2007, the region recorded over 1.6 million WCDMA subscriptions, with Saudi Arabia being the biggest market. Saudi Arabia accounted for over 82% of the region's WCDMA subscription base.

Ghafar notes that because of the more established fixed-line infrastructure, 3G technologies are not taking off at such a fast rate as Africa, where mobile often carries more clout than incumbent monopolies.

Syria, for example, is reluctant to push 3G in the region due to more established copper-wire infrastructure and ADSL alternatives.

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