Mobile data traffic in SA is expected to have a compound annual growth of 53% in the next five years and will reach an annual run rate of two exabytes by 2018.
This is one of the findings of the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2013 to 2018. The report says global mobile data traffic grew 81% in 2013 and reached 1.5 exabytes per month at the end of 2013, up from 820 petabytes per month at the end of 2012.
In SA, says Cisco, the projected increase in mobile traffic is partly due to continued strong growth in the number of mobile Internet connections, such as personal devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections.
From 2013 to 2018, Cisco anticipates mobile traffic growth will be double that of fixed traffic growth in SA. It notes that in SA, there will be 40 million mobile users by 2018, up from 38 million in 2013, while, globally, there will be 4.9 billion mobile users, up from 4.1 billion in 2013.
According to the networking company, there will be 98 million mobile-connected devices in SA by 2018, approximately 1.8 per capita. The global number will be more than 10 billion mobile-ready devices/connections by 2018.
Video will make up 78% of SA's mobile data traffic by 2018, compared to 50% at the end of 2013, the report states, adding that globally, video will represent 69% of mobile data traffic in 2018, up from 53% in 2013.
The report also states that 60% of mobile connections in SA will be "smart" connections by 2018, up from 20% in 2013
In 2013, M2M modules represented more than 8% of device connections and close to 1% of total traffic. In 2018, M2M modules will represent more than 17% of device connections and 2% of total traffic in SA, says Cisco.
The company explains that M2M refers to applications that enable wireless and wired systems to communicate with similar devices to support global positioning satellite (GPS) navigation systems, asset tracking, utility meters, security and surveillance video.
The average mobile connection speed will grow two-fold (17% CAGR) from 2013 to 2018, reaching 1 543kbps by 2018, from 704kbps in 2013, the report says, pointing out that 4G will account for 39% of total mobile data traffic by 2018, compared to 9% at the end of 2013. By 2018, 4G connections will support 13.8% of all connections, up from 1.1% in 2013.
Cisco also notes that by 2018, 33% of mobile traffic will be offloaded onto WiFi or small cell networks, up from 20% in 2013. Offload, it explains, refers to traffic from dual-mode devices and supports cell and WiFi connectivity, excluding laptops, over WiFi and small cell networks. Offloading occurs at the user or device level when one switches from a cell connection to WiFi and small cell access, it adds.
"South African mobile data traffic will continue its truly remarkable growth, increasing nearly eight-fold over the next five years and growing twice as fast as fixed IP traffic in South Africa," says Craig Zeeman, director: transformation & service provider at Cisco SA.
"Such growth is not only indicative of mobility becoming a critical characteristic of almost every network experience and the value consumers and businesses alike place on it, but it also represents the immense opportunities ahead for service providers who sit at the centre of the Internet of everything."
Zeeman is of the view that mobile operators, globally as well as in SA, are seeking new ways to accommodate this surge in mobile data traffic, smart portable devices and "things" coming onto their networks.
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