With little movement on the spectrum auction and many doubts as to whether SA will make the digital TV migration deadline, operators have to put their ambitions for Long-Term Evolution (LTE) network upgrades on ice for the time being.
The Independent Communications Authority of SA is meant to issue an invitation to apply for its second attempt at a spectrum auction, by March this year.
However, little has been done to finalise the details of the auction, as industry still awaits theappointment of an auctioneer who will be responsible for conducting the new auction.
The auction applies to spectrum in the 2.6GHz and 3.5GHz bands. The sought-after spectrum is ideally located for high-speed broadband connectivity, specifically for LTE and WiMax technologies.
Analysts argue that the confusion surrounding the spectrum auction has subsequently delayed the operator's plans to roll out LTE networks.
Moreover, the spectrum going up for auction will likely have limitations for the current versions of LTE, prompting more operators to rely on the digital dividend, or frequency in the 800MHz spectrum from SA's switch to digital TV.
As it stands, SA's operators claim to be LTE-ready, and have even begun trialling the technology.
“Much of our equipment is LTE-ready - the main issues that need to be resolved before the service could be rolled out commercially are getting access to spectrum, ensuring adequate backhaul capacity, and making sure the devices themselves (handsets, modems) are available in sufficient numbers,” explains Vodacom spokesman Richard Boorman.
However, the biggest hurdle facing the rollout of LTE technology remains the lack of available spectrum.
Ideal spectrum
WWW Strategy MD Steven Ambrose explains that the spectrum that is being auctioned was initially well suited to WiMax, mainly due to the frequency and the configuration, and it was precisely this that delayed the auction in the first place.
However, he argues that although the spectrum will be better configured for use by LTE technology, it is unlikely that the spectrum would be used for LTE.
Instead, he predicts that going forward, and when spectrum limitations start to emerge for the current version of LTE, most operators are relying on the digital dividend from digital TV, or the 800MHz spectrum to become available.
“800MHz spectrum will only become available after 2015 and will in all probability follow a similar spectrum auction process to the current one,” offers Ambrose.
The Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) notes that post-digital migration, the authority will embark on a consultation process to determine how the digital dividend will be used.
With dual-illumination set to start in November next year, SA will have less than a year to set itself up for digital switch-on, a task that is virtually impossible.
Frost & Sullivan senior industry analyst Vitalis Ozianyi says full migration to digital TV, at this stage, is a long shot; it could take up to 10 years to achieve it in the major metros, he predicts.
“ICASA could still free some spectrum used for analogue TV broadcasting even before migration to digital TV,” he adds.
WiMax now?
Ozianyi argues that, as it stands, the preferred technology would be WiMax instead of LTE. “As compared to LTE, WiMax-equipped devices are already available in the market. Consumers are already buying WiMax-integrated laptops. On the other hand, LTE devices have not reached the mass consumer market yet.”
MTN CTO Kanagaratnam Lambotharan explains that the commercial ecosystem for LTE is still very limited.
“Device availability, technology maturity, and interoperability with HSPA+ are all factors that will impact the rollout of LTE. MTN is focusing on ensuring that its network is ready for the evolution to LTE and will be conducting internal investigations for the time being and possibly trials in the near future,” he states.
But Ambrose argues against this thinking. “WiMax fell foul of all the hype that preceded actual networks being rolled out, and the lack of compelling and cost-effective devices that were based on that technology.
“There is no question that LTE will be the access technology of choice for GSM operators for the next few years,” he concludes.
Share