What`s hot, what`s not in 2001

As the year 2000 wound down, ITWeb asked local industry players - vendors, users and independent commentators - to shortlist what in their opinion will be the hottest IT trends and technologies in 2001. We also requested them to expose those technologies that will take a backburner or become obsolete in the year ahead.

While there was a fair amount of consensus on mobile, wireless and convergence as being hot this year, enterprise resource planning (ERP), in-house application development and the hype around business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce were identified as the things of yesteryear.

Paul Booth, director, Global Research Partners

In:

• Convergence of sight, sound, touch and feel in the technology sense, eg cellphones integrated with personal digital assistants (PDAs), headsets, portable keyboards, etc.
• Bluetooth allowing wireless connections.
• M-commerce.
• Conglomerates offering genuine e-business and including a financial institution within the alliance.
• Encryption as viruses become more prolific.

Out:

• ERP systems.
• Voice recognition, as it`s still a long way off.
• Dealers/value-added resellers NOT adding any unique value.

Michael Bosman, CEO, Commerce One South Africa, Distributor Operations

In:

• E-marketplaces will start demonstrating liquidity and business benefits by the end of 2001. More companies will start to realise the benefits gained from e-marketplaces, which will provide businesses with a platform to trade globally.
• The application service provider (ASP) market will start to gain ground as more services are provided through hosted solutions. Smaller companies will be able to reap the benefits of these as the next year will see the groundwork laid for these initiatives with the real benefits only bearing fruit later on in the year. Companies that make use of hosted solutions will benefit in a number of different ways and for small to medium enterprises this means using the software usually the preserve of larger enterprises.
• Business services will start to grow as companies become more niche-focused.
• Content management tools will improve in sophistication and search tools will be designed to remove much of the labour currently required to produce catalogues.
• South African businesses will become more outwardly focused and companies will address external markets. Access to global markets will become more important and companies will choose to partner with companies that can provide them easy access to global marketplaces.

Out:

• Programming will become obsolete. Application software development will start to decline as more companies provide built-in solutions.
• The appeal of standalone Web sites will diminish as companies without major brand names will recognise the power of joining e-marketplaces and the resulting network effect.

Simon Carpenter, general manager, my.SAP components

In:

• On-ramps to exchanges and Internet-based collaborative hubs.
• Supply chain management and collaboration.
• Leveraging EMS investments.
• Leveraging convergence (bandwidth permitting).
• Integrating customer relationship management with supply chain execution systems.

Out:

• IT-driven projects in favour of business case-driven investments.
• In-house development.

Janette Cumming, director, Paracon

In:

• Intelligent Web sites.
• Java/Web development.
• Wireless technologies.
• Application service providers.
• Relationship management.

Out:

• New development on legacy systems.
• B2B portals.
• ERP.
• SAP.
• Large in-house networks.

Gerrie J de Klerk, executive chairman, The AST Group

In:

• The skills shortage in information and communication technology (ICT) will worsen, more so in SA than globally. The problem will centre on management as well as specialist positions. We need to invest heavily in cross-training as well as management development training.
• Supply chain integration with customers is taking the lead to drive efficiencies up and costs down. There will be more risk-sharing initiatives between industry and the ICT service provider.
• Wireless applications will take a strong step forward, but locally one can expect that Telkom`s IPO towards the end of 2001 will occupy our minds. Security will receive more attention and one can expect large-scale projects in this space.
• Outsourcing of non-core activities will gather momentum. The demand for storage will grow exponentially and the market for storage on demand will grow.
• Middleware will take a more prominent position. Component software technology will gain mind- and market-share. Faster speeds in connectivity, processors as well as storage will continue. Flexibility to exploit information and technology investments will be high on the agenda of CIOs.

Out:

• Client/server will come under pressure and thin client will win more ground, primarily due to the cost, skills, management and security challenge.
• The B2B focus will shift to real-world results instead of who is in bed with whom. We will see the first of a number of rationalisations in the B2B world, specifically around exchanges. Business-to-consumer will become more entrenched and opportunities around fulfilment will grow.
• There will be a noticeable shrink in the demand for large-scale bespoke software projects. The number of projects extending over five months will reduce dramatically.
• The platform debate is dead. Product suppliers will experience more margin pressure; it is going to be a tough business.
• Dot-com and dot-net companies will have to deliver as one would expect from any normal business. This hype is dead.

Richard Fearon, director, Cameo Corporate Communications

In:

• We will see the emergence of a couple of "hidden champions" - smaller organisations with low cost bases and high levels of intellectual capital .The right sort of start-ups are the place where I would put my money - invested capital rather than market capital. I cannot see the bigger companies leading the recovery charge as they are all under huge financial pressure. This condition in most cases leads to an internal focus. We are no longer in an economy where the big companies swallow the small ones, but rather where the quick destroy the slow.
• Third-generation cellular service will roll-out in the UK, Spain, Finland and Germany. The impact -data at 200 times the speed of the current GSM delivery at more competitive cost. This will drive m-commerce, which I see as being the next big thing in ICT worldwide.
• Convergence will force organisations to re-invent their offering and value proposition to the marketplace; those who get it right will grow, those that don`t will wither away.

Out:

• Intermediaries that add cost without the associated value are an endangered species.
• Perpetual prosperity has been with us for some time now in the ICT marketplace. I think current market circumstances, coupled with levels of sector maturity, will keep values in check and expectations realistic.

Jill Hamlyn, MD, The People Business

In:

• Deeper understanding of business and effective communication in order to create a true value-add from technologists.
• More singular management, ie appreciation of the abilities of each individual. (Generic managerial style is definitely out.)
• More insightful IT spending by companies as they become even more IT-literate across the board.
• More growth opportunities than they can handle for individuals who possess the rare combination of maturity, business understanding, well developed interpersonal abilities and a strategic insight.
• The replacement of "gloss" within e-commerce as it enters the true maturation phase, ensuring the offering of a truly beneficial business service. A move to effective and efficient Web site development as opposed to trend setting.

Out:

• The sacrifice of people in the mass production of skills that are inappropriate to both the individuals concerned and industry in general but make money for the providers.
• The belief that large corporations attract free-thinking individuals.
• A decreasing need, and a loss in appreciation, for the "old disciplines" such as Cobol.

Stefano Mattiello, MD, Sun Microsystems South Africa

In:

• The Net Effect - the introduction of intelligent/connected appliances (Web-enabled motor vehicles, TV sets, etc).
• True wireless communications (GPRS, 3G, etc).
• Purpose-built, pre-integrated hardware and software stacks will emerge.
• The need for a seamless Web-ware environment, or set of standards, will emerge and will grow into the future.
• Huge service provider (datafarm) footprints will start to develop.

Out:

• Traditional back-office processing; the focus will move away from efficiencies to effectiveness.
• Fat and high maintenance desktops will lose out to thin and sleek appliances.
• Proprietary operating environments will lose out to open interface systems.
• Generalistic or one-environment-fits-all technology will make way for specialised or customised technology.
• Private networks will lose out to public, Web-based networks.

Consumer reluctance to use the Internet as a business medium will dwindle.

Miles Rippon, regional director, RSA Security

Miles Rippon, regional director of Southern and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, RSA Security

In:

• Wireless networking.
• Authentication and encryption.
• Mobile commerce.
• PKI technologies and smart cards.
• B2B.

Out:

• Hardware sales will continue to decrease.
• Consumer reluctance to use the Internet as a business medium will dwindle.
• Internal IT departments will shrink as outsourcing continues.
• Old generation of Wireless Application Protocol (insufficient bandwidth).
• Proprietary application development.

Adrian Schofield, international sales and marketing director, CompTIA Africa

In:

• Linux.
• XML.
• Web applications.
• Satellite connectivity.
• Java.

Out:

• Cobol.
• WAP.
• MCSE certification.
• Payroll bureaus.
• 56k modems.

Guy Whitcroft, MD, Tarsus Technology

In:

• Pentium 4.
• Wireless networking.
• Mobile computing (notebooks and powerful PDAs).
• Legacy-free "PCs".
• 128MB RAM.

Out:

• Pentium III.
• "The Beige Box".
• 64MB RAM.

CIOs

ITWeb also quizzed chief information officers as to what`s hot and what`s not, and asked them to outline their 2001 IT budget allocation. Here`s what they said:

Dinosaur ERP implementations are out.

Dave Schaller, CIO, Illovo

Dave Schaller, CIO, Illovo

In:

• E-commerce continues to grow.
• Corporate portals gather momentum.
• Mobile services take hold.

Out:

• Dinosaur ERP implementations and flat/static HTML pages.

The three biggest spends for your 2001 IT budget:

1. Payroll upgrade.
2. Workflow.
3. Exec information system.

Vic Lumby, CIO, Old Mutual

In:

• E-business expansion.
• Client relationship management technologies.
• Wireless.

Out:

• 16-bit PC-based solutions.

The three biggest spends for your 2001 IT budget:

1. CRM initiatives.
2. Infrastructure costs.
3. Accounting/financial system upgrades.

Access to office anywhere, anytime will grow.

Kevin Johnston, CIO, BOE

Kevin Johnston, CIO, BOE

In:

• Convergence of data, voice, video over IP.
• Convergence of storage, eg storage area networks.
• Mobility - access to office anywhere, anytime.

Out:

• Traditional fax.

The three biggest spends for your 2001 IT budget:

1. IT infrastructure for a proposed move to new premises.
2. Convergence of data, voice, video over IP.
3. Network infrastructure.