The Y2K computer bug has been touted in the media as the biggest non-event of the century, but are we still in for major Y2K woes?
ITWeb spoke to Karl Feilder, president and CEO of Greenwich Mean Time. Best known for the outspoken fervour with which he approaches the rollover date issues, Fielder is confident that Y2K problems are not over and we can expect more from the pesky millennium bug.
ITWeb: Was Y2K as big a "non-event" as everyone is making out?
Feilder: If you`ve read my various articles and columns over the last few years, you`ll be familiar with one of the stock phrases I`ve repeated ad nauseam: "Y2K is not about the 1st of January 2000."
I was right - nothing much happened at magic midnight. I am on record as saying that many computers would seem to continue unaffected and the media would write stories about how it was all a hoax. All my predictions are correct so far.
Here`s a direct quote from my regular column that appeared in last week`s UK Computer Weekly newspaper: 'The people asked to give up a good party to be in their offices on 31 December were truly wasting their time."
ITWeb: Is the time for concern over or do we still face possible problems?
Feilder: Y2K is about creeping chaos rather than sudden chaos. Again, I`m on record as saying that the impact of the year 2000 problem will really start to be felt over the first quarter of 2000.
Here`s another of my quotes, this time from an article that appeared in the August 1999 issue of SA`s Elektron magazine: "By the end of January when many companies are not able to invoice their customers, not able to process their sales forecasts, not able to pay their staff, they`ll start to realise that there`s a problem and that it`s serious. In February, when people are trying to unravel what happened in January and they`re still processing January`s data, you`ll get a cumulative data error and that`s when companies will start to run out of cash.
I don`t see a best or a worst case scenario, I just see a creeping technical malaise that will be very inconvenient for some people in some countries, and will certainly cause severe international financial disruption.
Right now, my expectation is that Y2K problems will peak in about April. But companies that started late can still survive. Don`t give up - unless you`ve made the decision to go out of business. If you want to stay in business, concentrate on getting your mission-critical systems in order. And you can continue doing this into January, and then resolving non-mission-critical problems through February and March.
ITWeb: Has Greenwich Mean Time had feedback from clients regarding system glitches and any other problems?
Feilder: Every country in the world has now experienced at least one significant Y2K problem - the puzzling thing is that very few of these have been reported in the media. Many companies are telling us privately about problems they are experiencing, and yet their press releases declare that nothing has happened. In most countries there is no requirement, legal or otherwise, for companies to state that they have experienced Y2K or other computer-related problems.
ITWeb: How, if at all, will the leap year affect systems?
Feilder: Software programs can come in many shapes and sizes, as do Y2K problems at the software programs layer. The leap year problem is a relatively simple one but we know of at least one popular accounting software package that incorrectly shows only 28 days in February 2000. The year 2000 was declared a leap year by Pope Gregory 13th in 1582, hence February should have 29 days.
ITWeb: What will happen to all the staff and companies that focused entirely on Y2K correction?
Feilder: I`m pleased to say that most of the would-be "millenniumaires" went out of business a long time ago - you can`t run a successful business without substance. Genuine Y2K consultants are a different matter entirely. As the year progresses, these skilled people are going to come back onto the market and SA is going to be in the unusual position of having a supply of good IT skills.
ITWeb: What are Greenwich Mean Time`s plans for the future?
Feilder: We`ve always seen Y2K as nothing more than a symptom. And we`ve always recognised that the cause is a much bigger problem - lack of control at the desktop. Some time ago I started returning Greenwich Mean Time to its original mission of helping companies gain control of their desktops.
Our philosophy as a software developer is radically different: we don`t believe in managing chaos. We believe in restoring order and then managing that order.
As the consequences of Y2K become evident to a wider audience, we expect to see a much greater understanding of the need to manage the desktop environment. If anything good can be said of Y2K, it`s that it will force us to replace chaos with order.
ITWeb: How does Greenwich Mean Time feel about allegations that Y2K was a money-making scam?
Feilder: Since you ask, I don`t mind telling you that these allegations irritate me. Many good people all over the world have worked very hard to resolve Y2K. Some of my fellow Y2K ambassadors are losing heart and my message to them is to keep the faith. Sadly, I believe we will be proved right in the end.
* Karl Feilder has invited any comment or debate regarding this issue to be sent to him via e-mail at kwf@gmt-2000.com.
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