As government officials this morning denied the existence of a turf war between the split communications ministries, and its supposed impact on the progress of broadcast digital migration, industry observers have all but given up on SA meeting the international switchover deadline.
Last week, it emerged a power struggle between telecommunications and postal services minister Siyabonga Cwele and communications minister Faith Muthambi derailed the gazetting of government's new digital migration policy at the end of last month. Reportedly, the source of the tension between the departments was the fact Muthambi had not been consulted on the final migration plan.
Cwele previously stated there is not much time left for SA to complete the switchover and said the country could not afford to miss the June 2015 International Telecommunication Union (ITU) deadline. However, it almost certain now that - with eight months to go - the deadline will not be met.
This morning, Department of Communications (DOC) acting media liaison officer Bongiwe Gambu denied the reports of a power struggle. "There is no turf war. These are separate departments," she said, adding that a statement would be drawn up by the DOC today.
Cwele's spokesperson, Siya Qoza, stated he was unaware of tensions between his boss and Muthambi, but would not be drawn on what contributed to his department's failure to gazette the new migration policy. "We are finalising the policy," Qoza said, but could not comment on what exactly still needs to be finalised.
SA won't make it
Meanwhile, market observers are not buying the turf war denials and say it is now inevitable SA will miss the ITU's June 2015 switchover deadline, when analogue signal will no longer be protected.
"The responsibility for digital migration is the kind of thing that should have been bedded down years ago," says Ovum senior analyst Richard Hurst.
He adds the latest delay frustrates the process and the market, which is waiting for the white space spectrum to be freed up once migration to digital broadcasting is completed. Hurst says it has become "symptomatic" of the local ICT sector to leave everything up to the last minute and then squabble.
Hurst also argues that missing the deadline is, in itself, not the most crucial issue for SA. "The chances are exceptional that we won't make the deadline. It's ironic considering the amount of ministerial assurance we've had that not only would we meet the deadline, but be well ahead of it.
"But the far bigger issue is the spectrum - it's become almost mythical."
Does it matter?
ICT industry veteran Adrian Schofield agrees the ITU deadline is now well out of reach, saying: "No one seriously expects us to make the deadline. But does it matter?"
He says the removal of analogue protection is unlikely to become an immediate problem for SA's broadcasting signal, as it is likely to take a while for our neighbouring countries to exploit the white space that would be freed up by the switchover to digital.
However, Schofield agrees with Hurst that the lack of spectrum would be the biggest problem for local ICT players. "Once again, this hold-up will result in denying SA from benefiting from digital technology."
In terms of the alleged inter-ministerial turf war, Schofield says it again underlines the lack of forethought in government's decision to split the communications ministry. "It does not make any sense."
Democratic Alliance shadow minister of telecommunications and postal services Marian Shinn says Muthambi's interference in the process shows her narrow view of digital terrestrial TV as no more than a platform for content delivery, and also highlights the ANC's confusion between ICT and communications in the broader sense.
"Digital migration is Cwele's responsibility, but this was always going to be the danger of the split - that it would create competing turfs."
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