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PC era officially over?

Kathryn McConnachie
By Kathryn McConnachie, Digital Media Editor at ITWeb.
Johannesburg, 17 Sept 2012

As of the end of the second quarter of 2012, the PC market no longer consumes the majority of memory chips in the global electronics market.

This is according to research firm IHS, which says that in the second quarter, PCs accounted for 49% of DRAM bit shipments (down from 50.2% in the first quarter). DRAM is the leading type of semiconductor memory, and between 2008 and 2011, the average PC share of the DRAM market was around 55%.

IHS says the figures offer yet another sign that the technology industry has officially entered the post-PC era.

“The fall is notable, given that the share of PCs hasn't dipped below 50% since the 1980s, when personal computers were a new product whose sales were rising at rapid clip,” says IHS, adding that PCs dominated the DRAM market for about 30 years.

The decline is attributed to the rise of smartphones and media tablets, and IHS says it is also indicative of the “diminishing dominion of PCs” in the electronics supply chain.

The tablet share of the DRAM market grew 2.7% between the first and second quarter this year, and IHS expects it to reach 6.9% by the end of 2013. Cellphones are experiencing even faster growth, with 13.2% of the DRAM market in the second quarter of 2012. IHS expects this figure to go up to 19.8% by the end of next year.

“The combined share in the fourth quarter of 2013 by handsets and tablets of the DRAM market will reach 26.7% - almost double from 14.1% in the first quarter this year.”

According to IHS, the tablet market has been growing steadily since the debut of the iPad in 2010. “The growing share of tablets in the DRAM market can likewise be attributed to more DRAM bits being loaded onto the devices. The third-generation new iPad has double the DRAM content of its predecessor, with up to 1 024MB - or 1GB - compared to 512MB in the iPad 2.”

Memory analyst for IHS, Clifford Leimbach, says the post-PC era does not imply that the PC market will stop expanding or that people will stop using PCs. “What the post-PC era does mean is that personal computers are not at the centre of the technology universe anymore - and are seeing their hegemony over the electronics supply chain erode.

“PCs are no longer generating the kind of growth and overwhelming market size that can single-handedly drive demand, pricing and technology trends in some of the major technology businesses.”

Leimbach says the fact that PCs have lost the majority share of the DRAM market signals a major milestone and the start of a new era in technology.

“This follows other indications of the waning influence of the PC business in the electronics business. Such factors include the declining power of the Wintel alliance, as well as Apple's smartphone- and tablet-driven ascendency to chip purchasing leadership above traditional PC-oriented frontrunners like Hewlett-Packard,” says Leimbach.

IHS forecasts that from now until the end of 2013, the PC share of the DRAM market will continue to decline to about 42.8%. “However, it's important to note that PCs will remain the largest single market for DRAM at least through the end of 2013, and overall DRAM bit shipments for personal computers will continue to grow.”

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