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Hunting for bargains in the rubble of the markets

By Bronwen Kausch, Media strategist, Innovative Media Productions
Johannesburg, 18 Sept 2001

As the global crisis sparked by last week`s attacks on America takes its toll on investors, patterns are beginning to emerge and market commentators are looking to likely mid- to long-term opportunities.

One of the sectors that may stand to benefit from longer-term investments is telecommunications. Tradek analyst Mike Schussler believes the rebuilding that will have to take place may well benefit telecom stocks. However, he cautions that real spending will only take place once the construction phase has been completed.

While local and services company Dimension will be looking to grab a piece of the replacement spending pie, its share has been dipping well below the R11 mark, and some pundits are eyeing it as a possible bargain.

Absa economist Matthys Strauss also believes there is some hope for technology: "In the medium-term, when the market has effected a technical correction, we can see the US as well as Europe re-looking their measures. This will mean a possible increase in spend in those technologies which will aid in beefing up security as well as those involved in peripheral software such as data recovery.

"The military spend will also bounce up, making technology companies involved in defence and related industries an obvious haven. The consumer end of the market will continue to feel the brunt of investors looking toward more stable equities or pulling out altogether and opting for bonds."

Schussler warns that the entertainment industry will take a severe knock as advertising revenue dives while TV channels provide live coverage of world events rather than scheduled programming.

"The sports and entertainment industries have cancelled events, which means less business for both the travel industry and the rest of the entertainment industry such as bars and restaurants.

"Furthermore, some movies have been withdrawn and TV advertising has been knocked off the schedule as live coverage continues. NBC has reported an advertising loss of $3.5 billion already and this is expected to at least double," says Schussler.

Locally, the media index dropped nearly 2% in early trade and MIHH hit a new 12-month low, trading at R7.50.

Meanwhile, the healthcare industry has been boosted, with companies such as Merck and Pfizer bouncing up minutes after Wall Street opened yesterday. Tracking the sentiment, the local healthcare index was one of the few in the green this morning, gaining 0.2%.

Despite the speculation that constantly changing political scenarios bring, Schussler says investors should keep calm.

"Do not sell shares in the short-term unless they have had a good run and it is time to get out anyway, or, of course, if you have real losers in your portfolio."

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