2006 - not the year of the obvious

Put the second national operator (SNO) at the back of your mind. The real issues that will drive 2006 are open source, law, black economic empowerment (BEE), Telkom, mobile operators and government.

Next year the SNO will be too young to have any real impact on the market, rather look for innovation and headlines from less obvious sources - after all, that is where they always come from.

For the first time there is a viable alternative from the local market to Microsoft. This comes from Shuttleworth`s latest Impi Linux release that may give Vista, the new Microsoft desktop operating system, a run for its money.

While open source systems have made some inroads into the server arena, Impi is the first Linux-based offering to really tackle the desktop - a key area for Microsoft.

To buy proprietary licensed software or to go open source will be a major issue for some large commercial organisations, many of which now have to upgrade for the first time since the Y2K issue five years ago. Open source, without the handcuff of licensing costs, may seem a more attractive route to go.

Trek to the summit

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The long awaited Electronic Communications Bill (formerly the Convergence Bill) and the Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) Amendment Bill, should be signed into law sometime during the first three months of 2006.

Now that the SNO is licensed and the drafting of the Electronic Communications and ICASA Amendment Bills are completed, it seems that her task is done.

Paul Vecchiatto, Cape Town correspondent, ITWeb

While the first bit of legislation is considered flawed but workable, there are still some serious doubts about the law that will govern an independent communications regulator.

ICASA will have to prove its mettle next year. With the licensing of the SNO under its belt and the public comments by its chairman Paris Mashile of ICASA being the consumer`s champion, the regulator will have to toil hard under an extremely heavy workload. It will also have to emerge from the brewing financial scandal that has led to the suspension of its CEO, Jackie Manche.

My prediction here is that ICASA and a number of industry players will become embroiled in legal wrangling that may tie down various processes and stifle confidence within the industry.

BEE, or more specifically, broad based black economic empowerment (BBBEE), will increasingly become the weapon of choice to qualify for various government agencies and large corporation business.

However, the ICT BEE charter process looks set to stay rudderless and this will lead to even more litigation and bad feeling between companies as they will try to show that their shade of black is far blacker than their oppositions`.

Telkom will be interesting to watch. It is very well positioned for the competition from the SNO, but is it prepared for what the US military calls "asymmetrical warfare"? This is when one party is prepared for a conflict using a certain set of rules, while the opposition discards those completely and either plays with a totally different set or no rules at all.

In this case, I think, Telkom will find that its real competition will come from municipalities and small Internet service providers (ISPs) who will start providing last-mile connectivity in direct competition to it, `a la Knysna and Uninet.

Rather, Telkom may find it more profitable to pursue opportunities outside this country. Its foray into Nigeria may be the harbinger of such a strategy. However, it will have to overcome its dictatorial reputation among African telcos.

The purchase of Business Connexion (BCX) by Telkom will probably be concluded in the first quarter of next year. There are already indications that BCX`s board will recommend the offer to shareholders. This will give Telkom a more rounded offering in terms of value-added IT services.

The 2006 Soccer World Cup will be a big event for the mobile network operators. They have launched their mobile TV services and introduced High Speed Packet Download Application (HSDPA) - the technology that enables it. Consumers viewing the 2006 World Cup will be the guinea pigs for the full-blown offerings that will be around in 2010 when that event hits our shores.

Handset manufacturers are already preparing a range of products that will cater for mobile TV and other enhanced services. Sony Ericsson, Motorola, LG, Samsung and Nokia will all be vying for consumer mindset.

But competition is coming and it will be Chinese firms that will hit the market with cheaper products that are almost every bit as technologically capable as those of established players, who will now have to watch their pricing very carefully.

Will our minister of communications, Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri leave next year? Now that the SNO is licensed and the drafting of the Electronic Communications and ICASA Amendment Bills are completed, it seems that her task is done.

The minister has been reported to be feeling unwell for some time and the strain caused by sitting in the telecommunications hot seat has not done her health any good. If she should leave, the tip is that the Department of Communications director general, Lyndall Shope-Mafole will replace her.

Watch out for other government related issues. These will include the promotion of open source skills, board shuffles at state-owned enterprises such as Sentech and the SA Broadcasting Corporation, and even a transfer of the Telkom shareholding to the Department of Trade and Industry.

* Paul Vecchiatto is bureau chief at ITWeb Cape Town.