While AI is unlocking new growth within South Africa’s formal ICT channel, it is also disrupting business models and adding complexity due to the rapid pace of change.
This forces channel partners to pivot quickly to capitalise on opportunities but also to protect their revenue bases, claim tech industry pundits and professionals.
According to Lionel Moyal and Paul Bunting, co-founders of GrowthGuru.ai, for distributors and resellers, AI promises scale, efficiency and intelligence at speed. The technology could be the great equaliser for SMEs and emerging players, they claim. However, the reality is far more complex.
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Moyal and Bunting say South Africa’s channel landscape is fractured, weighed down by legacy systems, accelerating innovation cycles, complicated incentive structures and growing pressure to deliver more with fewer resources.
They add that many channel partners are battling tool fragmentation, integration hurdles, entrenched data silos and a widening skills gap. In too many cases, and when not used correctly, AI isn’t streamlining the ecosystem − it’s amplifying the cracks already there.
Change in tech supply chain
The local technology supply chain is changing from high volume, low margin to high value, low volume, says Mark Walker, director at tech consultancy T4i.
He adds that this has come about as a result of markets moving past the initial wave of AI experimentation and now focusing on operational adoption.
This means a shift from old-style, reactive systems and limited predictive analytics, to agentic AI that doesn’t just forecast demand but independently executes workflows, he explains.
“Traditional distribution models are under pressure as refresh cycles shrink from five years to two, and ‘just-in-time’ models are replaced by ‘just-in-case’ strategic buffering. While the last 12 to 18 months have been characterised by pressure due to data centre demand for GPUs and DRAM, the chain is now also facing far quicker obsolescence cycles, which can result in inventory devaluation as customers demand AI PCs equipped with dedicated neural processing units,” says Walker.
Ecosystem alignment
According to Moyal and Bunting, the real opportunity lies in ecosystem alignment, partner enablement and AI integration that drives collaboration − not just automation.
But can the channel get it right? Yes, says Bunting, with the disclaimer that it requires a deliberate shift in how channel players think about their role in the ecosystem.
“The opportunity is not only about automating tasks, but about creating better alignment across the business. AI needs to connect strategy, incentives, sales and marketing execution into a more integrated system,” he adds.
“While AI drives strong growth, AI model complexity and integration into workflows between warehouse management, finance, logistics and new operational and management skills needed means that the cost of doing business has scaled proportionally. Structurally, local distribution channels are constantly in danger of disintermediation as large OEMs and hyperscalers go directly to large enterprise clients and consolidate partner programmes.”
Other factors include increased security needs as the supply chain becomes more intelligent and autonomous, maintaining regulatory compliance and ensuring human oversight to ensure ethical governance, especially regarding procurement and legal compliance, he notes.
AI expert and founder of AIforBusiness.net Johan Steyn says AI is simultaneously the greatest opportunity and the most complex challenge the South African tech channel has faced in a generation.
“For channel operators, the temptation is to chase the technology − but the organisations that will thrive are those that lead with people first. AI does unlock real growth: smarter demand forecasting, leaner supply chains, faster partner enablement. But it also exposes every weakness in a business − fragmented systems, skills gaps, unclear strategy and leadership that has not yet asked the hard questions.
“The channel operators I see succeeding are not necessarily those with the most sophisticated tools; they are the ones who have built the human capability and organisational agility to absorb change at pace.
“In South Africa, where we have both the urgency of a developing economy and the complexity of a global technology ecosystem, that human-centred approach is not optional − it is the only sustainable path forward.”
Looking ahead, Bunting says AI represents a clear democratisation opportunity for smaller channel players.
“Much of the conversation around AI in the channel focuses on large distributors and tier-one partners. But AI, when implemented through the right platform, can be the great equaliser for SME resellers and emerging partners who have historically lacked the resources to compete on intelligence and speed,” he comments.
GrowthGuru.ai cites research from Conversion System, which states that globally, between 70% and 80% of organisations are investing in AI, but only 10% to 15% are actually seeing measurable ROI.
Bunting says that when AI moves from a technology line item to a growth and revenue investment, the evaluation criteria change and the ROI becomes far easier to demonstrate.
Walker suggests that organisations should expect the local supply chain to focus on high-growth sectors, such as encompassing GPU compute, AI storage, high-performance networking and power/cooling solutions.
However, they will also have to juggle new relationships, financing structures and inventory strategies to service AI hardware demand reliably, given global supply constraints, long lead times and export control regulations.
Says Bunting: “AI is not just changing what partners sell − it’s changing how partners must go to market. Those who can align strategy, incentives and execution in real-time will win. Those who rely on static plans and disconnected marketing will fall behind. And, in a highly-competitive IT market − where margin pressure, currency volatility and skills shortages already strain partners − the need for structured, intelligent execution has never been greater.”
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