Bitcoin experienced mixed fortunes in 2025, with the world’s largest crypto-currency fluctuating between strong rallies and sharp pullbacks as markets responded to shifting macro-economic conditions.
Local crypto-currency exchange players interviewed by ITWeb say this unpredictability is likely to persist in 2026.
According to Larry Cooke, head of legal at Binance Africa, Bitcoin continues to gain momentum globally and in South Africa, reaching an all-time high of $123 000 (R2.08 million) in July, fuelled by institutional inflows, regulatory clarity and rising adoption.
He notes that volatility has remained a feature of the market, with prices dipping below $86 000 (R1.4 million) and more recently trading around $93 965 (R1.5 million) on 3 December.
“These fluctuations highlight the importance of education, informed participation and diversification, helping investors manage risk and approach crypto investments responsibly.”
Cooke expects Bitcoin’s momentum to continue in 2026 as adoption widens, including in payments and financial inclusion.
Luno SA country manager Christo de Wit says Bitcoin reached major milestones in 2025, noting that on US president Donald Trump’s inauguration day, 20 January, Bitcoin topped R2 million on Luno just 11 months after breaking the R1 million mark.
Beyond price movements, De Wit says institutional adoption accelerated, pointing out that BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) became the firm’s third-highest revenue-generating fund in under two years.
Pivoting policies
VALR co-founder and CEO FarzamEhsani says: “This year we’ve seen remarkable growth in Bitcoin adoption.
“We’ve seen more corporations, including in South Africa, adopt Bitcoin on their balance sheet, the first central bank – from the Czech Republic – announcing a Bitcoin purchase and several sovereign wealth funds starting to allocate a portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
“Just last week, Vanguard, one of the largest asset managers in the world, pivoted their policies to allow their 50+ million customers access to this asset class.”
He adds that Bank of America now allows wealth-management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets. “In this context, it’s important to remember that Bitcoin hasonly been around for just over 15 years… While the markets have undergone someturmoil in these past few weeks, the long-term trajectory for this industry andasset class is incredibly positive.”
AltCoinTrader general manager David Porter says 2025 marked a period of consolidation and institutional maturation following the momentum created by US spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and the 2024 halving.
“In terms of highlights, we witnessed a mid-year surge to new all-time highs in the South African market, trading above R2.2 million on the AltCoinTrader exchange, demonstrating strong capital movement and demand in the region.”
Porter notes that increasing regulatory clarity and sustained ETF inflows cemented Bitcoin’s growing institutional status, while the South African Reserve Bank observed a surge in stablecoin trading, reaching nearly R80 billion by October.
Ovex chief investment officer Imraan Moola says Bitcoin has largely held a sideways pattern through 2025.
“Bitcoin is still an emerging asset class and thereby exposes it to greater volatility than many other assets.”
He adds that renewed fears over the US Federal Reserve slowing its rate-cut trajectory triggered a drawdown of more than 35% in six weeks.
“This kind of volatility does cause fear among investors… and sometimes such moves keep them away from dipping their toes in and investing, unfortunately.”
Moola says two camps have formed around Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook: those who believe the four-year cycle points to a coming downturn, and those who argue that institutionalisation has broken the cycle, meaning future moves will be driven more by macro-economic and fundamental factors.
Looking ahead
De Wit says several developments could accelerate institutional momentum in 2026, including proposed changes to US workplace pension plans that could bring Bitcoin into retirement portfolios covering more than 90 million Americans.
“Bitcoin can be expected to potentially test this new market dynamic if regulatory clarity continues improving and institutional adoption accelerates,” he notes, adding that global economic conditions will be key.
Ehsani says he remains optimistic about 2026 at a fundamental level. “Over the course of the year, we can expect deeper integration to take place between crypto finance and traditional finance… We can expect much more M&A activity in the industry… and more countries to make significant strides in their adoption of digital assets, including stablecoins.”
Porter believes the late-2025 correction has absorbed much of the pessimism currently weighing on global markets, creating an attractive setup for 2026. “Any positive shift in global liquidity, particularly a clear path for US interest rate cuts, is likely to act as a significant catalyst.
“I expect the current downward pressure to ease as we head into Q1 of 2026. The continued accumulation by ETFs and the strong fundamental momentum could likely drive a resumption of the bull cycle towards new all-time highs.”
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