Broadband access in SA has more than doubled in the last two years, as mobile operators slashed the cost of data and network roll-out accelerated.
Penetration is now approaching 20% and the Internet is finally accessible to the mass market thanks to smart and ordinary mobile phones.
This is revealed in new data contained in the final version of the "Internet Access in SA 2012" study, released today. The research was conducted by World Wide Worx and backed by the howzit MSN online portal.
The broadband data shows the number of broadband subscriptions grew from 3.6 million at the end of 2010, to an expected 8.2 million by the end of 2012 - 128% growth. The study used multiple methodologies, including primary research, interviews with providers, and market intelligence.
In addition, the study shows the South African Internet user base grew from 6.8 million in 2010, to 8.5 million at the end of 2011 - no less than 25% growth. World Wide Worx also forecast that this strong growth would continue during 2012, and the Internet user base would pass the 10 million mark by the middle of the year.
While smartphones are the main driver of Internet growth, the cost of data use is being driven down by the proliferation of undersea cables connecting sub-Saharan Africa. The study shows that undersea cable capacity to SA at the end of 2011 was 2.69 Terabits per second (Tbps), and due to rise to 11.9Tbps by the end of 2012.
Choices
Many users have multiple forms of broadband access - such as an ADSL account, as well as 3G - while many hop between operators to take advantage of promotional offers. As a result, the number of individual broadband users is substantially lower, but also more than doubling in the past two years. The number has grown from 2.8 million to 6.7 million - 140% growth in just two years.
The number of Internet users in SA accelerated dramatically in the past year, thanks to the impact of both smartphones and ordinary mobile phones. As a result, the Internet is finally arriving in the hands of the mass market.
World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck says: "The Internet has finally awoken, fully, in SA. Penetration is now approaching 20%, and for the first time we can see the mass market embracing digital tools on their phones."
A total of 7.9 million South Africans access the Internet on their cellphones. Of these, 2.48 million access it only on their cellphones, and do not have access on computers. The remaining 6.02 million users access the Internet on computers, laptops, and tablet computers.
However, 90% of this number - 5.42 million - also access it on their cellphones. This means that almost 8 million South Africans sometimes or regularly access the Internet on their phones.
Profound shift
Measured by subscriptions, SA now has an apparent 15.8% broadband penetration of the population. However, due to extensive multiple-use of broadband subscriptions, especially as a result of the falling cost of data and the proliferation of promotional offers, the number of individuals using broadband subscriptions represents only 11% penetration of the population.
World Wide Worx found that the total number of fixed-line broadband subscriptions is now outnumbered eight to one by mobile broadband subscriptions. Telkom's ADSL service now holds just 10.6% of the broadband subscriber market in SA.
"This may seem small, but it is still light years ahead of where we were five years ago," says Goldstuck. "It suggests that, five years from now, mobile broadband and smartphones will be the conventional means of access, rather than fixed-line, which will increasingly be confined to small business."
"These findings are a powerful signal that the demand for online content in SA is likely to explode in the coming years," says Justin Zehmke, executive producer of howzit MSN. He adds that the move from fixed-line to mobile represents a profound shift in the way South Africans consume content.
"The spotlight will not only be on online media, but also on social networking and electronic services in general. As the market grows and matures, we are likely to see a diversification in the landscape that will create space for successful niche media, a greater choice in information sources, and a maturation of online services."
Zehmke says this has huge implications for media and social networks. "It means that, in the coming years, all services offered online will also have to be offered on cellphones."
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