The Department of Communications has released the market study that was cited by communications minister Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri as the basis for her surprise September telecommunications liberalisation announcement.
Compiled by US communications research firm The Yankee Group, the 180-page report is dated 11 December 2003 and can be found at the www.doc.gov.za Web site.
Although Department of Communications officials say the market study has been available since 1 October, it seems few within the ICT industry are aware they are able to access it. The officials were unable to say why the study findings were released 10 months after completion.
The market study is important because the lack of a government white paper that explains the liberalisation announcement has led to mixed responses from local and international industry participants.
One market commentator says the market study will be used as the basis for the questions at the Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) colloquium scheduled for 20 and 21 October.
While The Yankee Group report is mainly that of a background to the current telecommunications situation, it offers some insight into the way forward by recommending a three-phase approach to liberalisation.
It recommends that the second national operator be licensed without delay, that Telkom`s wholesale division be separated out of the company, the use of voice over Internet Protocol be approved, allowing value-added network services to carry voice, and that the regulator (ICASA) become more independent of the communications department.
The study also forecasts that by 2008, 48.4% of the population (about 44 million people) will have access to cellphones compared to 38.6% in 2003. Over the same period, wired connectivity penetration is expected to reach no more than 10.8% of the population from 2003`s 10.7%.
The various forms of convergence are also addressed. These are the convergence between broadcasting and telecommunications, fixed and wireless services, and voice and data - especially in the business market.
"The truth is that convergence of fixed and mobile wireless voice telephony will be a limited force in telecommunications markets over the next five years. Instead, substitution of voice traffic from fixed to mobile networks will accelerate," the market study says.
The study notes that there is ample scope to improve the situation by implementing and enforcing existing legislation to address the following issues:
* Licensing implementation delays and non-transparent processes.
* Access and interconnection arrangements lacking detailed legislative criteria and comprehensive guidelines.
* Inadequate regulation and control of Telkom`s retail pricing.
* Universal service policy unmatched with clear funding and implementation mechanisms and a well-equipped implementation agency.
* Inadequate enforcement of anti-competitive conduct provision and rules.
* Regulatory structure compromised by dual responsibilities of the sector regulator and the ministry of communications.
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