The best scenario for ICT in SA now would be if newly appointed telecoms and postal services minister Siyabonga Cwele hit the ground running - in former communications minister Yunus Carrim's footsteps.
This is according to industry observers, who are still largely in the dark as to what the future has in store since president Jacob Zuma announced the former Department of Communications (DOC) would be split in two. Hopes are high that the powers-that-be will maintain the momentum the sector started seeing under the former communications minister - rather than chart a new course.
With the former DOC infamously unstable - having seen four ministers since Zuma took the helm in 2009 prior to his latest Cabinet reshuffle - independent telecoms analyst Spiwe Chireka says the best scenario the industry can hope for, is one that sees the new minister picking up where Carrim left off.
The former spy boss has succeeded Carrim, with Faith Muthambi being tasked with leading the new DOC, which will now focus on communication policy and strategy, publicity and branding of SA abroad.
Make or break issues
While Cwele - like Carrim - does not come from an ICT background, analysts say this is not the deciding factor as to whether the sector will progress, or the new minister will be able to turn a historically fraught sector around.
"The main thing is continuity. In the short-term, it's important that Cwele picks up where Carrim left off, instead of going down a new path, and right now there are three critical issues that we cannot afford to put off."
Chireka marks digital migration, spectrum allocation and mobile termination rates as the three critical areas in need of immediate attention and continuity, with other issues like communication costs and convergence also important, but standing in line. "These three key priorities could potentially make or break the industry over the next 12 to 18 months. There is no time to waste."
Spokesperson for the Department of Telecommunications and Postal Services Siya Qoza confirms Cwele is set to publicly outline his strategy and priorities "within days".
In the meantime, says Chireka, the industry is holding thumbs that the ministerial musical chair curse the former DOC suffered will come to an end and the new regime will see the fulfilment of longer - if not full five-year - terms.
Speed and stability
Democratic Alliance shadow minister of communications Marian Shinn says the new arrangement is a "nightmare of reallocating responsibilities, programmes and funds at breakneck speed" for the officials involved.
"I assume the strategic plans of the new departments will now be a cut-and-paste job between the original strategic plans of Government Communication and Information System and the former DOC that were to inform Parliament's portfolio committees before we debate the budget allocations. This will now happen in a mad rush from end-June to end-July."
On an encouraging note, Alison Gillwald, executive director at Research ICT Africa, says the broadband council established by Carrim in March was set up precisely to provide continuity between administrations - an aim that appears to be on track. "I believe former minister Carrim has briefed minister Cwele on SA Connect [SA's broadband policy] and that he will attend the next [broadband] council meeting."
Appointed for three years, the National Broadband Advisory Council is tasked with advising the minister of communications on the implementation of SA Connect, which aims to have a 100% connected population by 2030. The next meeting is scheduled for later this month.
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