Government's conviction that SA will turn off analogue television at the end of 2013 isn't achievable, and even the international mid-2015 deadline is optimistic at best.
The country is migrating to digital television using the European DVB-T2 standard, and has set itself the ambitious target of turning off analogue broadcast by the end of 2013, a year-and-a-half before the global deadline.
Moving to digital television will free up large chunks of spectrum - the so-called digital dividend. This white space can be used to speed up broadband rollout, especially in rural areas, which have historically been overlooked, while metropolitans reaped the benefits of wireless broadband.
However, the industry says SA won't be able to turn on digital television next April, and the goal to turn analogue off by the end of 2013 will not be achieved. Even the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) deadline of mid-2015 is “optimistic”, say industry players.
As a result, it will be several more years before the digital dividend can be freed up, as the Independent Communications Authority of SA can't allocate spectrum in the free space until SA has moved off analogue.
Even when SA manages to turn off the analogue signal, many South Africans won't have access to television, because the behind-the-scenes support framework will not be in place and digital TV is more complicated to access than old-style analogue.
On track?
Communications minister Roy Padayachie has declared that SA will launch digital television commercially next April. During his budget speech, last week, he said: “Significant progress has already been made in implementing the broadcasting digital migration policy for SA.”
The minister noted the “department will implement interventions to ensure SA migrates to digital broadcasting by 2013”.
Padayachie said the period between the end of 2013 and the ITU deadline will be used to iron out any migration issues.
No chance
However, the industry says there is too much work to be done before SA can go digital.
Bertus Bresler, who heads up Reunert's set-top box (STB) project, says government won't make the 2013 deadline, which will - at best - be the start of switch off in some cities. He says the 2015 deadline is optimistic, but possible.
Bresler expects SA to still be migrating to digital television after the ITU's international deadline, and the move could even spill over into 2016. Only very small countries have achieved switchover in three years, he says.
For SA to migrate successfully, about 10 million households would need to either buy STBs to convert the new signal for viewing on old TV sets, or new televisions with built-in digital tuners.
Bresler says the industry is unlikely to have decoders in supermarkets to meet government's April turn-on deadline. He says STBs and new televisions will only hit supermarket shelves in about July or August next year.
Lead times
To meet the April deadline, boxes would need to be in the supply chain in February, which means manufacture must start in December, but getting components will take several months due to long lead times, Bresler notes.
He says manufacturers can't place orders for components before the South African Bureau of Standards has wrapped up sorting out the specifications, which will only happen towards the end of the year.
However, he adds, progress is being made and there are synergies between government and the industry, which makes it very likely SA will be able to tune into digital TV from next year.
Altech UEC MD Rodger Warren points out STB manufacturers can't start making decoders until national specifications are wrapped up, which should happen in September this year. After that, it will take at least eight months to get boxes to market, which means decoders will be on shelves around June next year, he explains.
WWW Strategy MD Steven Ambrose says urban areas will be “wired up” first, but government will struggle to have all the rural areas connected in time for switch off. He says it's likely many South Africans won't have TV well into 2020.
Ambrose says SA has “neglected the behind the scenes stuff”, and issues such as support to help people get set up to receive digital television haven't been properly thought out. He notes that installation and maintenance networks, as well as a help centre, are vital because turning on digital TV isn't as simple as plugging in a cable.
“There's a whole layer of service that doesn't exist... the disadvantaged will become more disadvantaged.”
However, Padayachie says it's too early to comment on the industry's concerns. “The industry is confident we will be ready.”
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