The average smartphone user will download 37 applications in 2012. While the figure is a 6% global increase on 2011, a report by ABI Research says the long-term forecast is downward.
ABI Research senior analyst Aapo Markkanen says globally 36 billion apps will be downloaded by smartphone users in 2012, but it is likely download figures will start to modestly decrease over the coming years.
“When forecasting on app downloads, one has to make a number of assumptions on, for instance, the device mix, developer activity, and the demographics of existing and future smartphone users,” says Markkanen.
“The next waves of smartphone subscribers in the more mature app markets of the US, Western Europe, and parts of Asia will be downloading quite notably fewer apps than, say, the first one-third of the mobile consumers who bought smartphones.”
“The decision by the Financial Times to pull the plug on its iOS app and bet instead on HTML5 can be seen as a hint of what is to come next. In many app categories, like games and most utilities, the Web will probably never catch up with the native app opportunity in terms of user experience, but at the same time there are also some popular areas where it can be anticipated to come rather close.”
Markkanen says news and magazine apps, in particular, are a segment where he expects the momentum to shift towards the Web over the next two to three years.
“Since news and media content already account for a large share of smartphone usage and are likely to play an even bigger role in later adopters' usage, changes in this segment alone will make subscribers on average download fewer native apps.”
HTML5 hype
Another report by Strategy Analytics, however, claims the continued dominance of native apps is not under any threat as HTML5 fails to present a viable alternative.
“The feature-rich superiority of native apps and the risk HTML5's open standards creates for existing revenue streams will confine HTML5 to niche status,” claims the report.
Josh Martin, director of apps research at Strategy Analytics, says: “HTML5 is not the future of apps. While developers dream of 'write once run everywhere', the fragmented support for and limited APIs within HTML5 make this impossible.
“In fact, Strategy Analytics predicts that the hybrid app is the future. Existing business models are protected, differentiation among and within ecosystems remains intact, and consumption continues unabated. The end result is the continued dominance of iOS, Android and, increasingly, Windows Phone."
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