End is near for mobile phone

Mobile phone sales are declining and will decrease by 56% this year when compared to 2010.

Technology services company Accenture says its new survey predicts this fall, along with that of the personal computer (PC). It says consumer purchases of PCs will this year decline by 39%, when compared to last year.

The annual survey focused on usage and spending on 19 different consumer electronics technologies among more than 8 000 consumers, in both emerging markets and developed economies.

Accenture says that although the survey predicts mobile phone sales will fall by 56%, this does not include smartphones.

“In the survey, mobile phones were described as having basic voice capability, but not the enhanced features available on smartphones, such as surfing the Internet.”

The research also found that ownership of basic mobile phones dropped from 79% in 2009, to 65% in 2010. In the same period, ownership of smartphones quadrupled, from 8% to 32%.

World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck says similar figures should not be expected in SA, since the country's market is still very different to global ones.

He says the same decrease in mobile phones, as predicted by the survey, cannot be expected in SA this year.

However, he does say smartphones are slowly replacing traditional mobile phones, even locally.

“Eventually, we'll see the replacement of the traditional mobile phone by the smartphone, but that's in five to 10 years from now. In the next five years, smartphones will make up more than half the cellphone market in SA.”

Accenture also says the buying rates of 3D TVs are expected to rise by 500%, tablet computers by 160%, e-book readers by 133%, and smartphones by 26%.

“The survey found that only 17% of surveyed respondents plan to buy a desktop or laptop computer in 2011 ‑ a 39% drop from 2010.”

The research also showed that respondents are using multiple devices such as tablet PCs for activities that used to be done on traditional PCs. For example, on at least a weekly basis, 40% of the respondents received e-mail from a tablet PC.

“In addition to checking e-mail, respondents are using tablet PCs for browsing the Web, watching videos and reading books, newspapers and magazines.”

However, Goldstuck says the tablet market in SA will take off much slower than it did globally, because of a lack of availability in the country.

“We haven't even got the iPad yet. It's only in the second or third quarter of this year that we'll get a wide range [of tablet computers]. So tablets will only start replacing PCs in SA from next year.”

Goldstuck adds that a lot of people are holding off on buying laptops, because they're waiting to see what tablets come in.

Mark Joseph, senior executive with Accenture's Electronics & High-Tech Practice in SA, says: “The research findings raise the question as to whether, in the long run, desktop and laptop PCs in the home will be increasingly replaced by a group of newer technology alternatives, such as tablet computers, netbooks, smartphones and e-book readers.

“If strength is measured by unit sales, the computer will remain the strong consumer technology giant for many years. Our research found that 93% of survey respondents own a computer - a higher proportion than any of the 19 technologies included in the survey.”

However, Joseph adds that if strength is measured by growth rate, the PC market - at least for consumers - has reached a level of saturation and will continue to see diminished growth rates.

“There's increasing potential for an end in sight for the relevance of the personal computer in the home, as we know it today.”

Purchase rates of 3D TVs are expected to grow at the fastest rate of all 19 technologies included in the survey, at 500% this year, according to Accenture.

“As consumer electronics companies consider ways to increase demand for 3D TVs, price emerged as the biggest lever for driving greater interest in this new technology product.

“According to the survey, 57% of respondents said they would be more inclined to buy a 3D TV if the price were within their budget. Finding this price point was more significant among respondents under 24 years old than respondents who were older.”

The company adds that other factors respondents said would make them more inclined to buy a 3D TV included having greater availability of 3D content and not having to wear 3D glasses.

Goldstuck says such a large increase in sales is highly unlikely in SA. He also cites the lack of a variety of content as one of the obstacles in the sale of 3D TVs.

“Also, the experience is still disappointing. On a once-off basis it's dazzling, but as an ongoing experience, it's substandard.”