Some Web sites might be unavailable and some consumers might be unable to send e-mail because of the Year 2000 technology problem, but the global network itself will largely be unaffected, some of the Internet`s top experts predict.
The architecture of the Internet - a collection of interconnected but independent computer networks - means its data traffic will be able to bypass any few local Y2K failures, such as those caused by power outages.
"We`re not likely to see major global outages at all," said Vint Cerf, an executive at MCI WorldCom who co-invented the common "TCP/IP" language of the Internet.
But the decentralized nature of the Internet also makes it nearly impossible to predict exactly how the January date rollover will affect it. The Web and its kin technologies rely on computers and software owned by people and companies worldwide mostly without any supervision.
"The Internet is about a million autonomous networks and about 50 million autonomous computers," said Tony Rutkowski, an early Internet pioneer. "The question becomes which of those many millions of networks and computers will have problems."
The White House planned to meet Tuesday with experts from the Internet community - including a trade group for Internet providers - to discuss the impact of Y2K on consumers using the Net. "The core structures of the Internet are expected to be in good shape," said Jack Gribben, a spokesman for the President`s Council on Year 2000 Conversion, which organized the meeting. But he cautioned: "The Internet is a vast enterprise with a large number of service providers and interconnected networks."
Cerf, MCI`s senior vice president for Internet architecture and technology, predicted "a series of little annoying problems that will bug us for most of January."
Part of the problem has been gathering information about the Internet`s preparations: Unlike some industries, there is no single organization in charge and little regulatory oversight by governments.
Don Heath, president of the Virginia-based Internet Society, predicted that the chance the Internet will have serious problems "is nuts."
"It`s just not going to happen," said Heath, who planned to participate in Tuesday`s meeting. "The whole Y2K thing is an absolute yawn."
But some of the Internet`s biggest companies are issuing dire-sounding warnings to shareholders. Network Solutions, which controls two of the 13 central computers that coordinate the world`s Web addresses, cautioned against "a failure of or interruption to normal business" if it doesn`t prepare adequately.
The other 11 computers, called "root servers," are largely run by volunteers at universities and other organizations worldwide. America Online, the world`s largest Internet provider with more than 17 million customers, also warned in a recent SEC filing that Y2K problems "could result in interruptions in the work of its employees, the inability of members and customers to access the company`s online services and Web sites or errors and defects in the Netscape products." [From E-Data]
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