Gartner expects desktop PC sales to give way to increased notebook market penetration this year and says manufacturers have failed to turn the PC into a media hub.
Worldwide PC shipments are projected to total 199 million units in 2005, a 9% increase from 2004, according to a preliminary forecast by the international research firm. In percentage terms, this is slightly lower than last year when PC shipments topped 183 million units, an 11.6% increase over 2003.
Gartner expects mobile PC shipments to drive market growth by increasing 17.4% in 2005. Meanwhile, desk-based PC shipments are only forecast to grow 6.1%.
"Overall shipment growth is expected to slow this year as both professional and home users wind down major replacement cycles," says George Shiffler, principal analyst for Gartner`s client platforms research.
"We believe professional replacement activity peaked in 2004 and will decelerate sharply over 2005. While home replacement activity will continue to provide some strength to the market in 2005, it too seems likely to slow by year-end."
Shiffler says mobile PC unit growth should outpace desk-based growth considerably again this year.
"Mobile PCs are becoming increasingly attractive to a broad range of users. There are a number of reasons for this including rapidly falling system prices, enhanced wireless experiences and expanded multimedia/entertainment functionality," he says.
"Market growth could prove stronger if PC manufacturers are somehow able to position the PC as a digital media hub," says Kiyomi Yamada, analyst for Gartner`s client platforms research. "However, we are sceptical that PC vendors can take advantage of this opportunity."
He says media PCs remain relatively expensive and suffer from spotty reliability and lack of ease-of-use.
"PCs are also handicapped by low interoperability with other media devices and poor aesthetics. This is hurting their ability to compete against alternative devices that are both cheaper and more readily connected to media sources," Yamada says.
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