Gazing into the telecoms crystal ball

It is shaping up to be an extremely interesting year for the telecoms industry, although the jury is still out on whether it will be a successful one.

Numerous issues still remain to be resolved, and - while there are signs that government is beginning to drift in the right direction - there is not enough significant movement towards resolution to make the sceptics think twice.

Firstly, we have the enormous potential that exists within a well thought out and comprehensive Convergence Bill.

The idea of horizontal licences, as opposed to vertical ones, which allow various providers to offer the same previously regulated services, is not only a good concept, it is a vital necessity if SA hopes to develop a truly thriving telecommunications industry.

However, the draft version of the bill raises as many questions as it answers, and the real fear is that we will see a wishy-washy, watered down version eventually being passed by Parliament.

Personally, I do not believe it is possible that we will see any real competition for Telkom for a long time to come.

Rodney Weidemann, Telecoms editor, ITWeb

Not only that, but the reality is that the Convergence Bill is a long way away from seeing the light of day. Why, you ask?

Well, the government has the small matter of a national election to conduct, and what with all the sniping, backbiting and campaign strategies that inevitably accompany such an exercise, the chances of the bill being passed anytime soon are virtually non-existent.

As for the underserviced area licences (USALs), this is also a fantastic idea when on paper, but the reality is a lot harsher, particularly since the process has been dragging on for well over a year already, and there is no end in sight.

Even if the USALs are granted sometime this year, whether the bidding consortiums will be able to really get started on implementation any time soon - considering how much capital has been lost during the drawn-out award process - is questionable, to say the least.

Then we have what amounts to being the South African version of "The Neverending Story": the ongoing saga of the second national operator (SNO), which was supposed to be licensed and providing opposition to the monopoly by May 2002.

Of course, the fact that the monopoly can still truthfully be referred to as such shows what a complete and utter balls-up this process has been.

The latest chapter in the story reads that the various entities that have been awarded percentages of the SNO licence - Nexus Connexion (19%), Esi-Tel (15%), Transtel (15%), Two Consortium (13%) and CommuniTel (13%) - are in the process of integrating.

My question is: how do you comfortably integrate into a single, cohesive entity, five completely disparate organisations that have already had their little spats with one another in the course of the licensing saga, and two of which were actually direct competitors?

Not only that, but with 25% of the shares warehoused by the government, how is a 75% fit SNO supposed to rival an organisation like Telkom, which not only has huge financial muscle, but has had an extra two years to strengthen its market position?

Personally, I do not believe it is possible that we will see any real competition for Telkom for a long time to come, and I will be really surprised if the SNO is even able to begin operations this year.

As I mentioned earlier, this is an election year, and it is traditional that the president shuffles the various ministerial portfolios around once the election is over.

Rumour has it that our esteemed minister of communications, Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri, will retire from government following the elections, which means that, come what may, we will see a new minister running the show soon.

While I expect there to be great fanfare made about her contribution to the industry (should she choose to retire) it will really be a case of good riddance.

As far as I am concerned, she has achieved a grand total of nothing during her tenure, unless you consider stuffing up the SNO process completely and causing endless delays to the third cellular licence process to be achievements.

My great hope for 2004 is that we will see a new and enthusiastic communications minister appointed, one who doesn`t make life as easy for big players like Telkom, who looks into industry issues with a bit more care and who strives to improve the telecoms industry in as many ways as possible.

I have heard that Matsepe-Casaburri`s potential successor may be Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, who is currently serving both as minister of minerals and energy and minister of arts, culture, science and technology.

Mlambo-Ngcuka was appointed to the second portfolio yesterday - to which I ask the question, is this in order to give her experience with science and technology, prior to moving her into the communications hot seat?

Should she be appointed to the post, one would hope that experience with the science and technology portfolio, coupled with her previous working experience as chairman of the Public Service Portfolio Committee and as deputy minister in the Department of Trade and Industry will serve her, and the telecoms industry, well.

All I ask is that we don`t end up with Manto Tshabalala-Msimang - that`s a nightmare from which there is no waking!