Google, Bing to trailblaze the net

This year is poised to be 'Web design year', says search marketing specialist and technology firm Greenlight.

The firm predicts Google and Bing will offer app search before the end of 2011, competition between the two to hot up and duplication filters to get even tougher as the search engines take more drastic measures to limit the amount of resource they spend on less valuable content.

For paid search, Greenlight predicts 2011 will be the year display marketing starts to mirror much of what is search in practice.

It expects a huge growth in the contextual-based pay-per-click (PPC) model; pulling away from the search engine domain to advertisers such as such as eBay or Amazon and the Yahoo! 'Rich ads in Search' proposition to take off, prompting Google to counter with a more appealing model.

These are just a few of Greenlight's top 10 predictions in its annual 'Year in Review Briefing', charting what's in store for natural and paid search marketing in 2011.

The research also looks back at what unfolded in 2010, surprises included, and how its predictions panned out. Among others they included Google factoring in the content of videos into page relevancy scores and the search giant finding more ways to monetise the excess inventory in AdWords, to Internet use on mobile phones accelerating and mobile search taking off.

Greenlight predicts Google and Bing will offer app search before the year is out.

“Smartphone users likely already feel the pull of their respective app store/marketplace as much as if not more than a traditional search engine like Google, if and when they have a particular need.”

That, according to Adam Bunn, director of search at Greenlight, is a new frontier for search: the idea that instead of finding a Web site that will be able to answer one's question right now, one will go and find an app and install that app because it will answer the question, and questions like it, again and again, in a more usable way (in the long term).

“To maintain any kind of grasp on the mobile user, search engines will need to be able to point out apps that might be relevant to the searcher's search - and even give them a one-click install option for when the search is being carried out from a mobile with the right operating system,” says Bunn.

“This will manifest as another type of vertical search on Google and Bing, as well as being pulled into the normal results as a universal search element.”

Among other things, Greenlight expects Bing to imitate Google Instant Preview and introduce image previews of sites, with some additional functionality over the Google implementation such as the ability to zoom or 'grab and scroll' the preview with the mouse to take a closer look before selecting which site is of interest.

Greenlight also anticipates Google to introduce a feature similar to Bing's 'Recent Searches' only called 'Recent Pages'.

“It will list the viewers' five most recently clicked on search results for easier recollection later on. Data pertaining to how often a site is revisited when in the respective user's recent pages list will be fed into the algorithm.”

“Expect this amidst a continued advertising push by Bing throughout the year,” adds Bunn.

The firm predicts that display marketing will mirror much of what is search in practice. It says

Google's acquisition of Double Click, Yahoo! Right Media Exchange, and Direct Response crossing over; and MSN bringing its exchange to the forefront.

“This is as well as offering similar display programmes and formats to search advertisers - is turning what we all once knew as 'traditional display marketing' to a very search-like feel to display,” says Greenlight.

“The Ad Exchanges specifically have been pivotal to this evolution, providing real-time bidding and optimisation. It is making advertisers and brands rethink their display strategy and investment - and ask the question, does display have a new lease of life?”

The best example of this, according to Hannah Kimuyu, director of paid search at Greenlight, was Google's acquisition of Double Click.” It transformed its Content Network into a fully-fledged display network (also re-branded Display Network) proving that in fact traditional display (blanket run of network etc.) is a thing of the past, and marketers can expect more sophistication, control and results from a new era of display.

“Imagine having search-like control with display - moving into 2011 we expect to see more from this new form of display marketing.”

Greenlight also sees Yahoo!'s 'Rich ads in Search' proposition taking off, prompting Google to consider offering display style ads within the search engine results page.

“A little similar to Google's recent introduction of Video extensions via its AdWords programme. Yahoo! has unveiled its 'Rich Ads in Search' (RAIS) proposition.”

In summary, the firm notes, RAIS are designed to deeply engage the target audience through images, videos and multiple direct links to the respective site.

“Unlike Google, Yahoo! is offering permanent real estate. You buy full inventory over a fixed period of time and are charged on a CPM.

RAIS is focused on branded search. It aims to highlight a respective brand even further, incorporate its video assets and extends its search functionality including site links and a search function in the ad as well.

The proposition is expected to increase click-through rates significantly for brand owners. It aims to take back some of the control/brand visibility lost from affiliates and competitors.

According to Kimuyu, RAIS has to be one of the most exciting things to come from Yahoo in a while.

“In my opinion it is a great example of the search networks finally taking responsibility over their advertisers' brands. Although Google's version is yet to make its mark, we do expect Google to up its game, especially now Yahoo! has shown its hand.”

The problem Greenlight reckons is the real problem, is not that there is too much content, but that there is too much similar or identical content that offers no real value for search engines the second, third or one-thousandth time they come across it.

2010 saw Google implement its 'May Day' algorithm update, part of which penalised 'cookie cutter' - or paint-by-numbers - content that is excessively template driven or syndicated to multiple sites in favour of more unique and valuable pages.

In 2011, Greenlight expects duplication filters will get even tougher as the engines take ever more drastic measures to limit the amount of resource they spend on less valuable content and maximise the focus on everything else.

“There will be massive growth in the contextual-based PPC model - pulling away from the search engine domain to advertisers such as eBay or Amazon,” says Greenlight.

With the success of Google's Content Network (now re-branded the Display Network), many publisher sites and shopping aggregators are following with similar paid for listings models, offering their real estate at a price, the firm says.

“Although very early stages, none of them have quite mastered a 'quality score' of some type making the payment model very much a fixed cost per click (CPC) but still split by vertical.”

For advertisers, this is another advertising option that in most cases is a cheaper option. With CPCs being relatively low, it helps spread the risk, says the firm. “So all an advertiser's budget isn't just spent with Google. But it does not quite offer the same amount of reach as advertising via one of the search engines or Google's contextual network.”

Greenlight adds, that said, it's an interesting proposition and one which many advertisers (especially retail and travel) are already exploiting.

“So far the biggest selling points are the competitive CPCs some of these publisher sites are offering, almost undercutting the search engines. Are they offering something different? And do they have a real chance of cutting into Google's monopoly of the contextual space? Greenlight thinks so.”

With the introduction of Google Instant Previews, search engine users now get to see a site before they arrive at it. This, Greenlight says, means they will be making important decisions before the site has any chance to engage the viewer with the strength of its content or functionality.

“Although Instant Previews usually contain a few highlighted snippets of text as well as the overall screen-grab, those snippets are barely noticeable at present making the previews basically entirely graphical.”

Consequently, the firm notes, if a site design is not up to scratch, it will start to see click-through rates (CTRs) dropping, which will have knock on effects on the site's rankings too.

In addition, Greenlight predicts CTR optimisation will become its own semi-discipline built around the arrival of Instant Previews and incorporating competitor analysis, title and meta-description optimisation, to offer a rounded and compelling package to top ranking sites.

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