Google+ statistician Paul Allen predicts the social networking site will notch up 100.8 million users this week.
The prediction comes at a time when Facebook is aiming to raise $5 billion through its initial public offering (IPO). According to unofficial figures, Google+ is growing at a rate of 750 000 users per day. A recent study by PlusDemophraphics.com notes that about 466 828 people from SA are subscribed to Google+.
In a 19 January blog post, Google CEO Larry Page revealed that Google+ had 90 million users.
Allen predicts the social network will have a total of 400 million users by the end of 2012 - almost half of Facebook's 845 million.
“If that rate holds steady, Google+ will end the year with 345 million users. But as I have said before, Google has many dials and levers to use this year to increase sign-ups and usage, including its Android 4.0 roll-out. I stand by my prediction of at least 400 million users by the end of 2012,” says Allen.
Allen bases his predictions on his own calculations and the social network's growth rate published by Page last month. He analyses different surnames to calculate number of users.
Last week, the Internet search giant made two changes to expand its user base by allowing teens, rather than just those 18 years or older, to join the service, and permitting the use of nicknames. Google is also connecting the social network to more of its services, including the new “Google Plus Your World”.
However, Allen believes it will be fascinating when Facebook files its IPO, “to see if they will announce something startling like one billion active users (have they been sandbagging?), or if they, for the first time ever, announce how many total user accounts they have,” Allen wrote on his page.
World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck believes Google+ will keep growing, but it will take several years to catch up to Facebook.
He explains that the growth of Google+ is a direct function of its ability to leverage both its mail user base, and the ability to direct people to Google+ from its search home page. “Both of these give Google a huge competitive advantage.”
Commenting on the Facebook IPO, Goldstuck says: “The listing will affect Google+ mainly in that it gives Facebook a war chest to go marketing and acquiring as never before. It is going to get bloody from here on.”
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