Immersive viewing on the horizon

The evolution of 3D and other sense-enhancing technologies is fundamentally changing the way people consume media, and is likely to lead to immersive contexts where the user controls on-screen action.

Reon Coetzee, Toshiba regional sales manager for southern Africa, says there are several reasons these technologies are shaking up the market, both for consumers and manufacturers.

“First, it gives users the next big thrill they're always striving for. Second, it gives vendors the opportunity to innovate and deliver fantastic products that help users access their content. And thirdly, it gives content developers the challenge to create media, games and information that make full use of these technologies and give users the best possible experience for their money.”

With the recent wave of 3D products and interactive devices, technology is becoming increasingly geared towards creating the most immersive experience possible, says Coetzee. He adds this is fundamentally changing people's interaction with content. “At first, things become more realistic on-screen, but later, we'll be able to control what we see on a screen.

“If you look way into the future - where all these 'reality-enhancing' technologies are taking us - the days of scripted movies are numbered. Imagine being able to be fully immerse ourselves in a movie, computer game or TV programme, interact with the characters and act out our own stories.”

He adds that while this level of control is still a way off, it's where all these advances are leading - “and technologies like 3D are the stepping stones”.

Adrian Drozd, Frost & Sullivan principal analyst at the telecoms group in Europe, says 3D is a hot topic on the minds of many executives across the media sector, with content providers, hardware manufacturers, broadcasters and pay-TV operators all looking to take a share of the spoils.

“Despite the fact that the market remains at the very early stages of its development, delivering a more immersive and compelling consumer content experience with the addition of 3D is seen by many as a way to boost revenues, both from a device sales perspective and from content subscriptions,” he says.

According to Drozd, gaming creators are upping their 3D offerings, both on the content and hardware side, with the E3 games expo in June giving a taste of things to come.

Both Sony and Nintendo provided details on plans to target the 3D opportunity, and Sony, which has already delivered a firmware update for the PlayStation 3 to provide 3D gaming support, announced a number of 3D gaming titles.

He adds that for Nintendo, the focus was on its gaming platform, with the new 3DS delivering a 3D experience without the need for glasses via its parallax barrier screen. “While the technology used for the 3DS sounds compelling due to the fact it does not glasses, it has its limitations, as users need to view from a central position 'sweet spot', or the illusion is lost,” explains Drozd. As a result, he doesn't expect to see the technology in the living room environment anytime soon.

A wider pool of content could arrive soon, as a Sony executive revealed this week that video site YouTube will support 3D content in the next 12 months. He added users will be able to view these clips on the PS3.

Interest in the home 3D market has also spiked recently, with major manufacturers including Samsung, Panasonic LG, Sony, Toshiba and Sharp all introducing or planning to release 3D TVs.

But Drozd says the issue for the market is not so much about hardware availability as price points and content. “As is to be expected in such a nascent area, 3D-TV costs are substantially higher than those of standard sets.”

He adds that even for those willing to invest in the necessary equipment, the next obstacle is content availability - or lack of it. “A limited number of pay-TV operators are broadcasting 3D content today. In addition, while a number of 3D-capable Blu-ray players are now available, with only around 20 3D titles expected in 2010, choice will be limited and therefore appeal relatively low.”

Coetzee says cost is currently the biggest barrier to the widespread adoption of 3D TV. “While the cost to manufacture products based on technologies like 3D has come down, and the complexity of adopting these technologies is reduced, the price of the end products is still well outside the reach of most in developing economies,” he explains.

“If the majority of people who live in a developing country struggle to afford a 54cm colour tube TV that costs around R1 000, it's safe to assume retailers will not sell that many 40-inch LCD TVs at R9 000 - let alone a 3D LED-TV for R25 000,” argues Coetzee. “This is what is going to hamper the mass adoption of 3D TV.”

3D also has shortcomings in terms of the need to wear glasses. Paul O'Donovan, principal analyst at Gartner's semiconductor group, says 3D TV's success depends a lot on whether consumers buy the equipment and are happy to watch content in their homes with glasses on.

“The cost of additional sets of glasses - and the mere fact that you need glasses to watch 3D TV - defeats the object of TV being a 'communal activity,” says Coetzee.

He adds that while vendors are working on 3D TVs that don't require glasses, these are just as far away from mass adoption as 3D TVs themselves.

According to O'Donovan, the 3D technology most likely to succeed at home is the version that uses LCD shutter glasses synced to the flat panel display.

“The problem is that these glasses are expensive, not like the cheap polarised glasses used in cinemas, so the consumer has to decide how many pairs they need to buy,” he points out. “What happens if friends come around and there are not enough to go around?”. The fact that glasses are 'one-size-fits all' could also be a problem for children or those who wear prescription glasses.

“If the technology could be made to work without the need for glasses, the equipment was not too expensive, and enough content was made available to satisfy a wide range of audiences, then 3D TV would have a significant chance of taking off,” O'Donovan argues.

Drozd says 3D will more likely be an option in TVs in future, rather than a function of TV. “The future for TV is higher resolution than today's 1080 technologies. Higher resolution does not cancel out 3D but it does mean that current TV solutions are temporary and that TV technologies are continuing to evolve.”

Coetzee agrees, saying this new wave of technology is not finite and involves stages of evolution which build on top of each other. ”The idea of TV has remained unchanged for decades. But the TV itself has changed many times over the years. What TVs will look like in 20 years, nobody knows for sure, but there will still be something we watch for entertainment purposes.”

According to Drozd, the key to success will be to deliver an immersive and compelling overall experience to consumers. “Immersive audio will certainly be one way of adding to the visual experience in the home, but delivering solutions which meet mainstream requirements, such as relatively low-cost devices and a good variety of available content, will be essential.”

Coetzee points out that technologies like 3D serve one single purpose: to make the entertainment experience more realistic. He adds that as economies of scale are reached and costs begin to come down, more people will adopt it.

“It's just a matter of time; but just how long it will be until we have this all-encompassing, immersive virtual entertainment world remains to be seen.”

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