At IDC's Directions 2010 Conference recently held in the USA, Stephen Minton, IDC's VP of Worldwide IT Markets and Strategy, reiterated that last year was the worst decline the industry has ever experienced. He said although there are many parallels with the 2001/2 situation that followed the dot.com disaster, the challenges facing the industry today are even more daunting.
[Stephen] Minton stressed that it will be the emerging countries, such as South Africa, which will see significant growth.
Paul Booth, MD, Global Research Partners
Following the lows of 2001/2, the worldwide industry, which in those days was PC-centric, grew significantly over the following years and peaked in 2006 with almost a 10% growth figure for that year. A similar recovery is expected this time over the coming years, but one that will peak slightly below the levels experienced in 2006, since the industry has matured significantly over the last decade and has now become information-centric.
However, Minton stressed that it will be the emerging countries, such as South Africa, which will see significant growth, and that organisations will need to adjust appropriately from a resourcing and product orientation perspective, for instance, if they are to benefit from this situation, and thus need to look further afield than their traditional bases in the USA and Europe.
Tackling the cloud
In 2001, the 'big issue' following this crisis was how to utilise outsourcing; today the 'big issue' following this latest downturn will be the handling of cloud computing.
Despite the 'slowdown', Internet commerce-related transactions continued to grow significantly and between 2006 and 2010 experienced a four-fold growth. On the other hand, there was a six-fold growth in the amount of information created, captured or copied over that same period. By 2020, data growth is predicted to be at least 20 times the levels expected this year and will by necessity produce a new round of innovations.
In 2002 it was said that the challenges with the new technology of that time, such as instant messaging, the BlackBerry and WiFi routers, was how to bring them into/onto the networks and deal with the security nightmare that would ensue, as well as addressing the issues of managing and supporting all this stuff. Today, we have a similar set of issues, but generated by such things as social networks, iPhones and Skype. We now have a situation where users are moving forward more quickly than the IT department.
Minton concluded his presentation by indicating that business transformation is inevitable to handle today's four major initiatives: mobility, socialytics, cloud computing and 'green' issues. He urged organisations to prepare to ride another wave and position themselves now for the future, which he saw as crucial, despite business being slow to get moving this year. He added that there is more appetite for IT and IT transformation in 2010 than in 2002, and thus recovery from this recession will be more predictable; and that IT is now central to consumer life as well as business processes, and the two are closely interlinked.
Unlocking the true value of IT will be the story of the next decade, and perhaps its last big wave of growth, he said.
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