The growing demand for memory components to power artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is driving up computer prices and threatens to deepen a slowdown in Africa's personal computer (PC) market.
So said Isaac Ngatia, senior research analyst within IDC's Personal Computer Trackers team for the Middle East, Turkey and Africa, in an interview with ITWeb TV.
He noted that the rising memory and component costs have put pressure on PC shipments, with price-sensitive African markets particularly vulnerable.
According to IDC's figures, the Middle East and Africa PC market contracted by 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026, while Africa recorded a smaller decline of 0.7%.
However, the outlook for the third quarter is considerably weaker, with IDC forecasting a 25% decline in African PC shipments. South Africa is expected to record a 25.5% contraction.
Ngatia attributed the anticipated decline to rising component prices, geopolitical tensions affecting trade flows and a particularly strong comparative period in 2025.
He said the shortage of memory components has largely been driven by the rapid expansion of AI, which has increased demand for high-bandwidth memory.
“You find that the high bandwidth requirements for AI are just gulping a lot of this memory that’s been put in the market. The memory requirements are quite high.”
He added that AI development, experimentation and deployment contributed to the growing demand for memory, putting pressure on component availability and prices.
According to Ngatia, the impact is particularly pronounced in Africa, which accounts for about 1.5% of global PC shipments and remains highly-sensitive to price increases.
The component price pressures are expected to persist into 2027 and potentially early 2028, creating further challenges for PC manufacturers, distributors and buyers.
Consumers turn to refurbished computers
The higher cost of new computers is expected to change purchasing patterns, with consumers and organisations likely to extend the lifespan of existing devices, or consider cheaper alternatives.
Ngatia said the market is already showing signs of increased interest in refurbished computers, while desktops are also emerging as an alternative to increasingly expensive notebooks. “Instead of just having notebooks, you may start seeing desktops being used.”
He said the growth of refurbished devices is particularly interesting because computers introduced from 2021 onwards increasingly feature modular architecture, making them easier to upgrade and refurbish. “We’re seeing the growth of refurbished devices.”
Ngatia explained that these computers are approaching the end of their initial lifecycle and could return to the market rather than being discarded.
“Previously, we could upgrade, but it wasn’t consistent. But the devices that came in after 2021 have this modular architecture, which gives that particular enablement for refurbishment, for upgrades and all that.”
He also pointed to changing desktop designs, including all-in-one computers and mini PCs, which are providing buyers with alternatives to traditional tower machines. “I think you're seeing the rebirth of desktops.”
The shift is partly driven by notebook price increases, while mini PCs are also gaining attention as organisations experiment with AI applications.
Windows 10 replacement
The anticipated decline in PC shipments comes against a particularly strong comparative period in 2025.
Ngatia said Microsoft's October 2025 end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 prompted a wave of device replacements across the region.
The upgrade cycle, combined with concerns about rising memory and component prices towards the end of the year, encouraged buyers to bring forward purchases.
He added that concerns about component price increases in November 2025 had created another incentive for buyers to purchase computers earlier.
Consequently, the third and fourth quarters of 2025 recorded high device uptake, creating a challenging base of comparison for 2026.
Despite the replacement cycle, Ngatia said a large installed base of Windows 10 computers remain across Africa.
He warned that continuing to use unsupported operating systems expose users to security vulnerabilities and compatibility problems.
“First is the security. I think that’s one of the key things that comes up.”
He pointed out that the lack of security support, combined with growing connectivity and AI-related risks, could leave organisations vulnerable.
Unbranded computers gain traction
Ngatia also highlighted the growing presence of white-label and unbranded computers in African markets, with some suppliers sourcing devices from overseas manufacturers and selling them under their own brands.
He said IDC had started tracking the segment because of its growing presence in both consumer and commercial markets. “The interesting part is that they [unbranded PCs] are also evolving.”
However, he questioned the long-term sustainability of some of these products, particularly where price is prioritised over quality and reliability.
“Sometimes people just source devices from wherever they can get it cheaply and just bring it to the market.
“Two or three years down the line, that device cannot be used, it cannot be refurbished. And therefore, it just becomes part of the e-waste, which is another issue that is coming up.”
Africa’s longer-term outlook
Despite the short-term pressures, Ngatia maintains that Africa's PC market has a positive long-term outlook, supported by government digitisation programmes and growing demand for technology in education.
He identified Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Africa among the markets that have undertaken large-scale education device procurements.
“We've seen some of the markets − for example, Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, even South Africa itself − having some large procurements of education devices or other devices for education.”
Governments across the continent have increasingly started digitising public services, creating further opportunities for PC vendors.
Ngatia expects pricing pressures to affect the market over the next five to six quarters, potentially extending into early 2028, but said longer-term demand remains encouraging.
He said international manufacturers need to adapt their distribution and market-entry strategies to Africa’s unique trading environment.
“Africa doesn’t suffer from a lack of interest or lack of digital innovations. It’s just the way the market is structured is a bit different from other markets.”
Ngatia said distributors, independent traders and grey market channels play an important role in getting computers into African markets, particularly where established manufacturers have limited direct distribution networks.
He identified South Africa as one of the five largest PC markets in the broader MEA region, which comprises 71 countries. The top five markets collectively account for approximately 65% of regional shipments.
Established brands continue to dominate
Despite the emergence of white-label computers, established international manufacturers remain the leading players in Africa's PC market.
Ngatia identified Lenovo, Apple, Dell, HP and Acer among the major suppliers, saying the continent broadly followed global PC market trends.
He also noted a transition towards AI-enabled computers, with manufacturers increasingly incorporating AI capabilities into their devices. “By default, now you're seeing a transition from non-AI to AI-enabled devices.”
Demand from customers, together with manufacturers' product strategies, accelerated the shift. “Most of the OEMs are going into AI PCs by default.”
Ngatia said Africa’s longer-term PC growth will depend on manufacturers recognising the continent's different market structures, pricing realities and distribution channels.
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