The value of electronic transactions in South Africa climbed to R1.361 trillion in June, marking the second consecutive month of growth and offering a positive sign for the country’s economic outlook.
This is according to the latest BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI), which tracks the value of all electronic transactions processed through BankservAfrica, adjusted for inflation and seasonality.
The June uptick follows a period of volatility and points to a modest recovery in economic activity during the second quarter of 2025.
BankservAfrica says this trend is likely to be reflected in an improved GDP performance, with StatsSA expected to release official Q2 data in early September.
While some sectors are beginning to show resilience, others continue to struggle amid persistent challenges.
BankservAfrica warns that renewed global uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of new US import tariffs, could dampen investment sentiment and pose risks to growth forecasts into 2025 and beyond.
“The uptick in the BETI in June is welcomed, especially given that the economy started 2025 on the backfoot, with quarterly growth of only 0.1% in Q1 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and confidence indicators declining across the board,” says independent economist Elize Kruger.
She notes that while several sectors entered a technical recession in the first quarter, early signs of recovery are emerging in key industries, such as mining and manufacturing, which are likely to have returned to growth in Q2.
Projections currently point to real GDP growth of 0.6% for the second quarter, quarter-on-quarter and seasonally adjusted, aligning with the trends reflected in the BETI.
According to the organisation, the number of electronic transactions processed fell slightly from a record high of 176.3 million in May, to 167.3 million in June, but still represented a 13.5% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, the average transaction value rose by 1.7% month-on-month to R7 747.
While higher US import tariffs are expected to weigh on South African exports, BankservAfrica points out that elevated gold prices and lower international oil prices may help soften the blow.
In addition, it says many South African export commodities have been excluded from the US tariffs, which could support the mining sector and broader economic stability.
“Furthermore, a considerable share of South African export commodities has been exempted from the announced US import tariffs, which could provide a buffer for the mining industry and subsequently provide some support for the economy,” Kruger adds.
Looking ahead, Carpe Diem Research Services forecasts a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 31 July, which could be the final reduction in the current easing cycle.
Kruger says a low inflation environment will support consumer purchasing power. “With average salary increases expected to be between 5% and 6%, 2025 will be the second consecutive year of real increases in salaries.”
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