As long-term evolution (LTE) - a relatively new mobile technology that can yield data speeds up to 10 times faster than 3G networks - continues its global evolution in 2015, SA's networks will remain hamstrung until the lingering standstill on spectrum allocation is resolved.
Yesterday, Cell C, the local operator that has yet to launch LTE commercially, announced it was a step closer to deploying LTE services beyond the pre-commercial trial it started two years ago.
In May this year, Global Mobile Suppliers' Association (GSA) president Alan Hadden said LTE coverage was rapidly expanding and LTE subscriptions growth, on a global scale, was impressive. In July, the GSA revealed there had been 100% growth in the number of LTE user devices worldwide, over a period of 12 months, with smartphones being the largest device category.
Hadden attributed the significant growth in LTE subscriptions largely to rapidly expanding network coverage - boosted by digital dividend spectrum coming into use in several markets.
Solid barrier
But SA's story is different, analysts point out.
When LTE first became "the buzz" in SA, a significant barrier to entry was the limited number of devices that supported the technology. With the number of devices supported on the local networks having increased five-fold in the last year, according to BMI-T director Tim Parle, this is no longer the case.
Parle, who authored BMI-T's "Outlook for LTE in SA" report, says: "Spectrum remains the number one problem."
And ICT expert, Adrian Schofield, says the things that remain barriers to entry for LTE in SA are "spectrum, spectrum, spectrum - and investment".
LTE outlook
In terms of what 2015 holds in store for SA in the LTE arena, analysts say there will be progress, but it will be slow.
Schofield says this is because the allocation of spectrum, to match demand, is not going to happen in 2015. Industry watchers have warned that the heavy dependence South Africans have on mobile broadband for Internet access will continue to be a huge headache for operators if the issue of spectrum allocation is not urgently addressed.
The Independent Communications Authority of SA has listed allocating high-demand spectrum as among its priorities for the coming financial year.
Parle says SA may see trials of voice over LTE next year, but commercial deployments of these services are unlikely in 2015. "Telkom Mobile is still charging ahead and has already moved to LTE-Advanced. Vodacom may follow soon, but will likely wait until they have more spectrum, so as to capitalise on the capabilities it brings."
Three-horse race
Out of SA's three mobile operators that have deployed commercial LTE, Schofield says Vodacom is ahead.
Parle points out, based on published figures, Vodacom has the most LTE base stations (around 2 000), with Telkom in second place (around 1 300). "By inspection, Vodacom has covered more suburbs."
MTN has grown its base to at least 1 000 sites in the last two years.
Parle says, however, neither Vodacom nor Telkom Mobile have captured the market's attention with their LTE offers. "This speaks to the power of entrenched brands over new offers."
Parle concludes that 2015 ought to be interesting if the Telkom and MTN deal goes ahead. "The strength of MTN's brand and customer base, plus Telkom Mobile's LTE capabilities, could make for a game-changing combination."
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