Although a mainframe skills shortage has been predicted for some years now, a lack of significant steps to address the problem may show that people thought the mainframe era would end before skills really became scarce.
The rapid development of just about every aspect of the computing industry in the past 30 years would give most good reason to think it was extremely likely that the mainframe would be surpassed. But while the world has moved into the 21st century, the mainframe is still showing little signs of being consigned to history.
Many government departments and corporations, particularly in the fields of telecommunications, banking, finance and insurance, are still using mainframe systems and applications.
Not only is there still a significant number of these so-called legacy systems, but mainframe manufacturers report a return to the mainframe by some users after trying more "modern" distributed environments, as well as some first-time users.
Linux boom
The Meta Group predicts Linux momentum will grow rapidly, with application integration and Web services projects adding further life to mainframe systems. A Meta report says European growth has been driven by increased workloads and the realisation that most legacy applications will continue to be critical to business.
This apparent resurgence makes it more likely that mainframes, both legacy and new, will be around long after those with the necessary support skills have retired.
The lack of new blood in the mainframe arena is of concern to business application specialists like Arjen Wiersma, BMC business development manager. Although recruitment companies are saying the skills shortage is yet to make an impact, Wiersma says IT professionals with mainframe skills are already difficult to find in the local market.
Mark Fraser-Grant, recruitment manager for The People Business, confirms there are no new mainframe skills entering the market. He says certainly no young South Africans are choosing to acquire mainframe skills.
Wiersma says a new role has emerged for the mainframe, but there are no IT professionals to support this. He says training institutions need to take action now to ensure there will be an ongoing mainframe skills base in the market.
Meta Group says although improvements in monitoring, scheduling and command-and-control tools have resulted in the need for fewer people and less in-depth knowledge, users need to be wary of the application-specific skill problem.
Meta says because most current mainframe applications are legacy, any changes needed at the core logic level will require both in-depth legacy language skills and knowledge of the target application environment.
Mainframe support
While the world has moved into the 21st century, the mainframe is still showing little signs of being consigned to history.
Warwick Ashford, Senior technology journalist, ITWeb
Perhaps the solution to the problem lies in the need for this dual competency. IT courseware developers should take note, and instead of trying fruitlessly to woo school leavers away from the attractions of more modern languages, they should design courses that turn out graduates with both modern and legacy skills.
It would be interesting to know how many companies with mainframe dependencies are planning to deal with the diminishing pool of mainframe skills.
At the very least, business probably needs to educate IT training institutions and career counsellors about the continued need for mainframe skills.
Fraser-Grant says although mainframe systems and applications are at the core of many big businesses, the popular perception is that the mainframe era is past.
Driving this perception is the fact that many mainframe systems are front-ended through the Web and e-commerce applications, so most users are not aware they are interacting with mainframe systems.
Unless industry players get real about the problem of dwindling mainframe skills in the face of a resurgence and do something fast, it seems there really is no guarantee that the mainframe won`t run out of support some time soon.
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