City Press is this morning reporting that the matric pass rate will drop for the first time in five years as less students pass key ICT subjects mathematics and science.
Basic Education minister Angie Motshekga will release the 2014 results tomorrow evening at 6pm in a live broadcast carried by public broadcaster the South African Broadcasting Corporation.
City Press reports that the overall pass rate may drop by as much as 5%. It quotes professor John Volmink, who is head of the council of standards body at Umalusi, as saying the rate may drop between 3% and 5%.
In 2013, 72.8% of those who wrote the National Senior Certificate passed - an increase of 61 950 passes compared to 2012.
According to the City Press, the department declined to comment on Volmink's comments, calling them "speculative".
However, City Press also spoke to Nicholas Spaull, an education researcher and lecturer at Stellenbosch University, who said Volmink's prediction was the most informed the country would see before the results are released.
Volmink noted the decline could be attributed to a drop in passes of between 5% and 6% in mathematics and science, a failure rate of 48% in mathematics literacy and a drop in home language passes.
Last year, the department's technical report showed that, although 59.1% (142 666) of those who wrote mathematics passed, this figure drops to 40.5%, or 97 790, when looking at passes with more than 40%.
In addition, 67.4% (124 206) passed science with 30%, a figure that drops to 42.7%, or 78 677, when looking at passes at 40% and above.
In December, the department's Annual National Assessments (ANA) revealed a dismal 10.8% average performance for grade nine pupils in mathematics.
Of the 551 656 full-time matric students writing the National Senior Certificate exams this year, 231 180 (41%) are registered for mathematics, while 171 549 (31%) students will write the physical science exam. This is a drop when compared to 2010, when 48% wrote the maths exam and 38% of pupils took science.
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