Predictions that the smartphone industry will continue to boom throughout 2011 have been met with rising concerns about whether cellular networks will be able to keep up with the demands of the high data-consumption devices.
IT research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts the African smartphone market will expand by nearly 50% in 2011, and these devices will account for almost one handset in five sold in the region.
Furthermore, smartphones are said to be fast replacing the traditional mobile handset.
Technology services company Accenture says in its new survey that ownership of basic mobile phones in Africa dropped from 79% in 2009, to 65% in 2010. In the same period, ownership of smartphones quadrupled, from 8% to 32%.
Locally, World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldsuck predicts that in the next five years, smartphones will make up more than half the cellular market in SA.
“This growth, combined with rising consumer expectation to be able to access ever more complex services on their mobile devices, means that demand for mobile data is higher than ever before,” notes Deon Liebenberg, regional director for Sub-Saharan Africa at Research In Motion.
With a growing number of users consuming bandwidth-intensive mobile data services, such as Web browsing, video/media streaming, social networking and other data-hungry apps, Liebenberg questions whether the world's cellular telecommunications industry is heading for a capacity crunch.
Questionable quality
He points out that with the number of smartphone users expected to surpass the one billion mark by 2013, cellular networks and mobile technologies are only going to come under further pressure from a growing subscriber base.
“This may result in an increased number of dropped calls, slow Webpage-loading and applications which cannot pull down the required data, all of which combined will deliver a poor end-user experience and lead to frustrated, angry customers,” explains Liebenberg.
So far, SA's communications regulator has performed dismally in its mandate to monitor and maintain network quality in the country.
In 2009, the Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) published the End-User and Subscriber Service Charter regulations, calling for operators to maintain 95% network service availability over a period of six months and an average of 3% or lower in connectivity failure rate. Failure to do so is supposed to result in a R500 000 fine.
However, in its first publicly available report, nearly a year after the regulations were published, the authority was unable to fine non-compliant networks.
ICASA conceded its report was not definitive and that it had yet to establish an industry-accepted methodology for monitoring network quality, despite having already published the regulations.
All the while, operators continue business as usual, with no risk of fines for non-compliance.
However, as the demands of increased smartphone usage take its toll on the networks, the need for stricter quality control will become even more apparent.
Being prepared
Liebenberg explains that, against this backdrop, operators and handset manufacturers face the challenge of sustaining this runaway growth in a scalable way.
Handset manufacturers are incorporating features such as WiFi access to their devices to address the challenge, while operators are building out their networks with next-generation technologies, such as Long Term Evolution (LTE) and 4G connectivity, he explains.
“Nonetheless, even these steps may not be enough to cater for the billions of new data users expected to flood the market over the next five years. Therefore, the industry must start to think about maximising smartphone infrastructures and improving their efficiency in order to most effectively utilise existing capacity,” advises Liebenberg.
Vodacom seems to be ahead of the curve, with the company reporting at its most recent half-year financial results that smartphone proliferation increased 65%.
The company has committed to increase investment in mobile broadband and fibre networks. Vodacom CEO Pieter Uys stated the company would expand its smartphone portfolio, while also expanding mobile Internet availability in the country.
This will be achieved through its strategy to expand 3G coverage across the country, noted Uys. He stated that Vodacom had added 351 3G base stations and hopes to have between 600 and 650 more before the end of the year.
All 3G sites have a capacity of 14.4Mbps, and Vodacom has 1 800 HSPA+ sites in place, which Uys says will facilitate a smooth cross-over to an LTE-capable network when the time is right.
MTN explains that it has invested over R15 billion over the past several years on network upgrades in preparation for the 2010 Fifa World Cup - an investment that goes beyond the event itself, explains Serame Taukobong, chief marketing officer at MTN SA. The operator maintains that it is well equipped for high data demands. MTN has also begun trialling LTE in the country.
Third mobile operator Cell C has deployed its new HSPA+ network running on the network standard “release 7”, which doubles the data capacity and offers lower latency and faster call set-up time. The operator has taken the mobile data market by storm and explains that its new network can easily transition to LTE when needed.
The 8ta network provides voice and data products and services over a unified 2G/3G network. Parent company Telkom will also pump in R6 billion over the next five years to develop 8ta's network. In addition, its network hardware allows for a seamless migration to LTE, explains the newcomer.
Thoughtful engineering at both the network and smartphone level can conserve network bandwidth and defer the capacity crunch, advises Liebenberg.
“Given users' rising expectations, the industry must focus on delivering a consistently strong mobile Web user experience, in a sustainable and efficient manner, if mobility is to deliver on its promise of bringing affordable Internet access to the mass-market population of Africa,” he concludes.
Related story:
SA networks ahead of cell innovation
Share