One of the famous World War Two legends tells of how British scientist managed to create butter (an absolute rarity during the tough days of rationing) from human faeces.
Broadband Internet is not an attractive channel for games - at least, not so attractive that it would cause Sega, Sony Nintendo or Microsoft sleepless nights.
Rudy Nadler-Nir, Independent Strategist,
The British government was delighted at such a successful recycling feat, but the scientists admitted that the new product had a drawback: "We got the colour, taste, texture and density perfectly. Now all we have to do is find a way to get rid of the smell."
The story did the rounds in many variations but none more so than in the ongoing schlock about how broadband Internet will be used to the benefit of the gaming industry.
Not that it doesn`t make sense; what can be better than a merger between the most popular desktop tool in history and the most popular past-time in history?
It does make sense, but so does the wartime butter recycling programme. Both offer a viable solution while ignoring the legacy-packages carried by their "products".
Broadband Internet is not an attractive channel for games - at least, not so attractive that it would cause Sega, Sony Nintendo or Microsoft sleepless nights.
Reflections from a time-bubble
The McKinsey Quarterly Report recently published an interview with John Riccitiello, president and COO of Electronic Arts, the $1.7 billion US game publisher.
It seems that Riccitiello spent the last 10 years in a sealed time-bubble in Eastern Novosibirsk: "People will spend an increasing amount of time and money on interactive electronic entertainment," he said.
Really? Where does he get this amazing insight? No, he doesn`t have a magic crystal ball - he simply extrapolates. This is how he figured it out:
"Right now, Americans spend up to 60 hours a week on electronic entertainment of one sort or another. For the most part, they listen to music, watch TV, play games and surf the Net."
Now he goes for the quantum leap: "Since I believe that interactive entertainment is better than passive entertainment, I believe that the share of time spent on interactive entertainment will grow tremendously."
The seams and cracks in his logic are almost invisible, but they are there nevertheless: who says that people will drop their current channels of electronic entertainment (music, TV, games, Internet) for broadband gaming?
Like a warped Rumplestiltskin, Riccitiello goes on to spin his commercial credo: "If money flows to what people are doing, I believe that gaming will rise from 10% to 30% of a household`s electronic-entertainment time and therefore spending."
Sure, but who says people would dump their trusted PlayStations for a chance to play online games using broadband? Even in the US this is at best a wish-list of the very few.
Tactical platforms
One of the reasons for this is that each of the major players has their own proprietary platform. They rake in hefty bucks by divide-and-control tactics. The fact that no single platform emerged here precludes a happy ending as in the VHS versus Beta conflict.
Unlike VCRs, built by a myriad of manufacturers, and movies, produced by thousands of different production companies, gaming consoles are built by those who design and own the games.
A gaming console ties the gamer to a single line of products - broadband gaming will be impervious to platform, it would allow gamers to choose the best from Sega, Sony Nintendo or Microsoft products.
And this, I believe, is the major stumbling block behind broadband gaming. Broadband might find its way to retail outlets and public gaming arcade where casual players spend money "as they go," but as far as home use is concerned, broadband gaming remains recycled, smelly butter.
Share
