More plans are better than one

Businesses around the world are facing an uncertain future and need to start planning for more than one possible scenario to succeed.

Speaking at the opening of the Gartner ITxpo/Symposium Africa, in Cape Town, this morning, the co-author of “Mind of a Fox”, Chantell Ilbury, explained the world has moved from an extended economic boom into an uncertain future, and companies will need to adapt quickly to stay afloat.

To do this, companies will have to start looking at defining more than one possible future scenario and have plans in place to shift strategies if predictions of the future begin to change, she said.

Many companies failed to plan for an economic slump, because until 2006, the world had been on an extended growth spurt. While the globe is currently facing a “hard times” scenario, Ilbury noted there are several other options that could emerge over the next few years. Either the world could move back into a boom period, or face a perfect storm.

She identified several flags that could indicate which scenario the world is more likely to move into. Recovering house prices, or increase in consumer lending may indicate a recovery, she noted.

The East is starting to gain ground as a powerhouse in the global economy, according to Ilbury, which will create new rules that global businesses will need to determine and fit into. “The question companies will have to ask themselves now is 'what are the new rules of the game?'”

SA is also holding strong under the global economic crisis, she pointed out. The country's current scenario is as a country in the “premier league”. The positioning places the country as one of the top growth regions globally.

While SA slipped down the ranks to what is considered the “relegation zone”, she says many other countries have faired weaker during the global crisis, helping SA regain a higher ranking. The coming 2010 Soccer World Cup will also help to promote SA's future standing.

Ilbury predicts the next global move will be towards the effective use of resources, which will benefit SA as a resource-rich country. She explained the shifting focus will move technology innovation towards nanotechnology and biotechnology.

However, the primary focus for SA's future should lie in the development of the small business entrepreneur, she added. It is imperative to “get everyone on the playing field”, which will close the gap between big business and the man on the street, she concluded.