Nigeria is overtaking SA as the African country with the largest mobile phone market due to size of the population and because SA`s market is approaching saturation, analysts say.
UK-based analysis firm Informa Telecoms & Media`s World Cellular Information Service says Nigeria will, by end-2007, have mobile subscriptions that will exceed 44 million compared to an expected 40 million subscriptions at year-end for SA. Informa estimates that Nigeria currently has 30 million subscriptions and SA 35 million.
[TABLE]International research firm Gartner sees a far wider difference in the Nigerian versus South African growth rates. It estimates this year Nigeria will have 32.207 million connections and estimates the growth to hit 39.949 million connections by end 2007. SA is estimated to have 27.567 million connections this year and at the end of 2007 will have 28.892 million connections.
Devine Kofiloto, principle analyst at Informa, says: "With an estimated 130 million inhabitants, Nigeria is Africa`s most populated country. Despite high yearly growth (181% over 2004 and 96% over 2005), the country`s penetration rate was still at 19% in September 2006 compared to 77% in SA at the same period. Nigeria also has a very competitive market with four GSM players and five CDMA networks actively involved in the mobile field."
Kofiloto says as of September, Nigeria counted 25 million mobile users. MTN led the market with a 41% share. Globacom and Celtel controlled respectively 29% and 24% of the market, while M-Tel stood at 4% and the CDMA networks had 2% of all mobile users in Nigeria.
Carolina Milanesi, Gartner principal analyst for mobile and consumer devices, says the South African market with 77% penetration was approaching the same penetration levels as many First World countries, where 110% penetration was not uncommon.
"Obviously the rate of growth in SA is slowing. Nigeria can sustain a higher rate of growth still," she says.
Milanesi says the South African refresh market, particularly the replacement of ordinary GSM handsets with third-generation (3G) handsets, was slow, which is in common with other countries.
"The network operators have not yet introduced compelling reasons for subscribers to move to 3G," she says.
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