The Chalmers University of Technology has introduced an online climate model for public use, as a simple tool for anyone who wants to learn more about the climate problem.
The Chalmers Climate Calculator, built by Professor Christian Azar and Dr Daniel Johansson at the university's division for physical resource theory, aims to quickly let users get an idea of how carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can affect climate in future.
According to the researchers, the online model allows users to choose scenarios for future emissions, deciding when, and by how much, emissions are cut, or whether to allow them to increase according to a business-as-usual projection.
Using these inputs, the model then calculates the future atmospheric concentration of CO2 and the increase in global average surface temperature (other greenhouse gases are also taken into account). Users get to see how both the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and temperature vary depending on emissions, say the researchers.
Example of questions that can be explored include: 'What temperature increase will we see by 2100, if we keep global emission levels at the current level, or if we cut emissions by 3% annually, starting now?' and 'What if we delay emission cuts for another 10, 20, or 30 years?'
According to the Chalmers scientists, how much the temperature will increase in the future depends on how much greenhouse gases are emitted. But the amount of warming also depends on how sensitive climate is. “For instance, with the business-as-usual emissions scenario employed by the model, the temperature could increase by more than five degrees celsius, by the end of the century. However, if temperature is less sensitive to greenhouse gases, cutting global emissions in half by the end of the century could let us avoid overshooting the so-called 2-degree target.
“With the Chalmers Climate Calculator, the user gets to determine this parameter. This allows the calculator to reproduce the results from a wide range of models,” they explain. “Different climate sensitivities require different emissions reductions in order for us to stay below the two-degree limit.” (The 'two-degree target' refers to the goal of keeping global average surface temperature from increasing more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels.)
Journalists, students, policy makers, and international negotiators, along with the general public, can access the model at Chalmers Climate Calculator.
In order to answer questions related to developed and developing nations, or questions related to deforestation, the two-region version of the model must be used.
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