Outsourcing is only one factor that will affect the security of jobs in US and Western European companies` IT departments, says international research firm Gartner.
Gartner`s analysts predict that the automation of IT infrastructure services and business processes, through concepts such as IT as a utility and on-demand computing, will put even more pressure on traditional IT jobs during the next two to 10 years.
The impact will be felt mainly by internal IT organisations, but external service providers (ESPs) will also see a drop in headcount as automation begins to replace customisation.
Gartner says the loss of IT jobs in many developed countries has become a political hot potato as there is a perception that countries such as India, China and even SA will gain at the expense of those so-called rich nations.
In SA, some 11 000 jobs have been created in the call centre industry and more are expected to be created in the business processing outsourcing sector in the near future.
"The trend towards offshore services has monopolised attention in terms of job losses," says Gianluca Tramacere, analyst in Gartner`s IT Services and Sourcing group. "There is less awareness that increasing reliance on highly automated infrastructures will significantly reduce the need for manual procedures and direct involvement of the workforce.
"IT automation can mean greater flexibility and cost efficiency for businesses. However, it makes it harder for IT personnel to defend their jobs as this evolution, accelerated by the global economy and the competitive marketplace, is seen as an inevitable consequence of IT progress."
Tramacere says this will require IT staff, both in-house and those employed by ESPs, to move their skills further up the value chain.
According to Gartner, enterprises are warming to the idea of accessing technology infrastructure rather than owning it. Management will be prepared to give up a large proportion of highly customised, internal IT infrastructures to achieve greater flexibility in accessing IT functionality.
"ESPs, including IBM and HP, are investing heavily in new technologies that will allow the automated delivery of IT services," Tramacere says. "Examples of technologies that are emerging include 'self-healing` hardware, rapid development tools and software components, and tools that automatically manage systems and services."
Less people reliance
Over the next five to 10 years, leading-edge business processes will also become far more IT intensive and rely less on people and paper, Gartner says.
The analysts say that while automating existing processes will be key, using IT to transform the processes of a business to speed up decision-making, respond faster to change and make more effective use of their assets, will be even more important. Findings from Gartner`s annual worldwide survey of CIOs early this year showed that 43% believed the biggest change in the role of their IT department would be to enable better business processes.
"Once fully available, real-time infrastructure -- IT infrastructure as a utility - has the potential to become the underpinning layer of business process automation," says Claudio Da Rold, Gartner vice-president and analyst. "The final aim for highly specialist service providers will be to provide greater business flexibility by developing and offering applications and business processes on a large scale as a one-to-many model."
Gartner predicts that to 2015, the US will be better positioned to use business change as a strategic weapon as compared to Western Europe because it has more fluid labour laws and culture.
"Organisations based in countries with complex labour laws and strong union representation, such as France, Germany and Italy will have to work hard to maintain a competitive edge as they strive to make the transition to the new models," Da Rold says.
Gartner says the impact will be felt acutely by individuals and IT organisations alike and counselled both parties to prepare well in advance.
It adds that Individuals should strengthen their business and IT skills and any specialised knowledge of their organisation`s business models and processes. The right focus will be on IT enablement of new business processes, as driven by the competitive business strategy. Specific new areas of IT skills are needed around data, IT architectures, business process management and modelling, information flows and relationship management.
CIO advice
Gartner advises CIOs and business unit executives to develop a clear vision for evolving IT and business processes and a long-term course of action for evolving IT roles. Most CIOs typically work to a one- or two-year plan, but the critical nature of a five-year sourcing strategy will become increasingly apparent as automation assumes a greater role.
"The whole IT landscape will become increasingly complex as the inclusion of new delivery models impact internal skill requirements," Tramacere says. "As such, CIOs must also formulate plans to deal with affected employees in the early stages of the planning process and work closely with Human Resources (HR) executives to retain critical employees and manage the HR transition policies to mitigate breakdowns in culture and morale."
Tramacere also says IT change is accelerating and CIOs need to be prepared to manage constant change. "Employing a methodology to review past experiences and best practices and build a strategy to manage future change is now an essential pre-determinant of success."
Share
