Local PC companies are expected to benefit from the global resurgence in PC sales, and increased spending should spill over into related areas such as software and services, say analysts.
Research company International Data Corporation (IDC) says global PC sales are expected to grow 12.6% this year, after only growing 2.9% last year. Emerging markets will be the main driver, growing at 18.5%, says IDC.
The firm predicts volume growth in emerging markets will overtake mature markets this year and in the future. Mature markets, however, are expected to grow at 7.2% this year, but will move back into double digit growth next year.
Portable computers will be the main driver of growth, and will reach 70% of the market by 2012. Sales of desktop PCs, however, will slow across the globe, apart from the Asia Pacific region.
“The positive 2009 results reflect lower prices and the fact that PCs are increasingly a must-have product,” said Jay Chou, research analyst with IDC's worldwide quarterly PC tracker. However, the computer market will not return to the record revenue levels seen in 2008 until 2012, says the IDC.
Local joy
The South African economy is showing signs of recovery, having grown at 3.2% in the fourth quarter of last year. The economy posted a recovery of 0.9% in the third quarter, the first period of growth after going into a recession at the end of 2008. SA is expected to grow at 2.3% this year, rising to 3.6% by 2012.
Smit says there have been signs since January that the market is starting to revive. “People who didn't refresh for two years will refresh now.”
Chris Gilmour, Absa Investments analyst, echoes Smit's sentiments. He says companies now have to spend on new products. “SA has not spent as much as we should as a country on ICT.”
Gilmour believes a global resurgence of PC sales will spill over into increased spending on hardware in SA, and will also bolster related services.
Earlier this month, PC company Mustek said the market is returning to a healthier state. “Growth predictions are finally positive for SA, with consensus being around 2% for desktops and 32% for notebooks,” the group said.
Mustek's comments echoed Pinnacle Technology Holdings' statement late last month that the local and international economies have shown signs of recovery, aiding earnings growth.
Recent research from sales monitoring company GfK indicated the local market for technical consumer goods showed signs of recovery in the last quarter of 2009. GfK said the upward trend was driven by mobile phones and IT.
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