A shift in PC buying trends has further dampened expected PC shipments for 2013, with the International Data Corporation (IDC) saying it expects worldwide PC shipments to fall by 7.8%.
The IDC updated its original forecast of a 1.3% decline, stating consumers are delaying replacing their PCs or just opting for tablets. The decline in shipments is expected to slow down in 2014 to 1.2% and start picking up by 2017, with shipments increasing by 1.5%.
Programme vice-president of Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC, Loren Loverde, says as the market develops, usage patterns and devices are evolving. "Many users are realising that everyday computing, such as accessing the Web, connecting to social media, sending e-mails, as well as using a variety of apps, doesn't require a lot of computing power or local storage.
"Instead, they are putting a premium on access from a variety of smaller devices with longer battery life, an instant-on function, and intuitive touch-centric interfaces," says Loverde.
He adds that these users have not necessarily given up on PCs as a platform for computing when a more robust environment is needed, but this takes a smaller share of computing time, and users are making do with older systems.
Mobility
Tech analyst Liron Segev says the adjusted forecast should come as no surprise. "We were expecting this to happen, but the question is just by how much."
While the shipment of desktop PCs is expected to continue declining until 2017, the shipment of laptops is expected to fall by 6.7%, in 2013, and then pick up to increase shipments by 3.6%, in 2017.
Segev says in the age of mobility, people don't want to be chained to one location anymore. "So it makes complete sense that when you're thinking of buying a new device, a laptop comes to mind ahead of a desktop."
He adds that for people who travel between home and work, a desktop makes much more sense than a laptop. "It's easier to upgrade and it's cheaper. But they still opt for the laptop because they want the option to travel with their PC, should the opportunity present itself."
Premature memorial
Segev says it's still too early to make the funeral arrangements, as the desktop PC is not dying just yet. "At the end of the day, there is still demand for it in the workplace. It gives administrators much more control over data. The desktop PC still has more RAM, you can upgrade it, it's much more powerful and it stays in the office."
Government is still one of the biggest buyers of desktop PCs and Segev says this is largely to have better control of information on the computer and who has access to what.
"When you start worrying about hundreds and thousands of employees, the management of laptops becomes an absolute nightmare, especially when it comes to theft. It's a big budgetary problem and once that laptop is stolen, there is the concern about the information it contains."
Segev says the desktop also still has its place in the home. "People choosing a computer for their home don't necessarily want a laptop that their kids can take with them to their rooms and they have no idea what they're doing with it. So they still prefer a desktop set up in the study and they know exactly what is happening on the device."
He adds that the decline in demand could have an effect on the price of the desktop PC. "In most cases, the desktop is cheaper than the laptop. The concern is that if there is a decline in the number of orders of desktop PCs, the manufacturing plants will have to adapt. It could happen that the price of the desktop will increase, making it more expensive than a laptop and in return speeding up the death of the desktop."
New arrivals
Meanwhile, research by Strategy Analytics reveals global tablet shipments reached an all-time high of 40.6 million units in the first quarter of 2013.
There's also a constant influx of new tablets to the international and local markets. US online retailing giant Amazon will introduce its Kindle Fire HD tablet to the South African market on 13 June.
Later this week, Sony is also unveiling its Xperia Tablet Z in SA.
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