Predicting the future

Do you ever just take the time to think about the future? Most of you will probably now go, "Boo!", indicating that they think this is a waste of time. After all, how can you spend time predicting the future when the fullness of competitive economic engagement is what you were hired to participate in? I couldn`t agree more - I was hired to do a particular job, and that job relates quite directly to the bottom line; here and today.

How can you spend time predicting the future when the fullness of competitive economic engagement is what you were hired to participate in?

But thinking about the future is important. We all know that there are major changes afoot, and most of us participate in them in one way or another. Those who read this column work in the IT industry in some capacity: they distribute and install networking equipment, servers, databases; they engage in thinking about how to change the processes that a company uses in favour of better ways of doing things. Most of the IT industry revels in `doing things more cleverly`: I know that I enjoy it when something happens more effectively because someone has used their brain rather than simply by working harder. (Incidentally, I think this is a major cultural feature of the IT industry - work smarter, not harder. It`s become an unwritten law and a lingua franca, like a secret handshake, for the entire industry.)

I would be the first one to harbour deep doubts about a future that is entirely IT-based... personally, I think that IT people generally lack certain types of skills that I think will become ever more important in the future. These include interpersonal skills and everything that goes with them. What I wanted to do with this week`s column was to explore some of the developments that the Internet and its related technologies are already bringing to us; and perhaps write down some musings as to where I see these technologies going.

First of all, I think that another great convergence is on the horizon. So far, nobody has really spent a lot of time thinking about the issue of mobility of the network - we`re wiring up everything that can`t be moved, but other than the cellular telephony guys, nobody is really thinking much about making our data mobile. There are some great pockets of activity, however, and I think once those start merging together, things will start happening.

In his otherwise quite awfully badly written book, "The Road Ahead", Bill Gates spends some time talking about the portable electronic wallet. I would agree with him that this will be a major area of convergence. In terms of effective electronic trading, we have to have mechanisms of going shopping, physically. Simply mail ordering everything won`t be the only way of purchasing goods and services. We need a cash equivalent. Personally, I think what will happen is that PDAs, cellular phones and digital payment methods will be merged into a small, portable appliance that will work anywhere. Cellular phones are already becoming more of a PDA, what with Nokia and Alcatel rolling out PDA phones. Whatever electronic payment mechanism we will eventually settle on will also be incorporated into this pocketable Java toaster.

Now I don`t think that that`s a particularly revolutionary thought. It`s been thought of before. But think about the ramifications of this technology becoming ubiquitous for a minute. What does it mean in terms of networking infrastructure? There will have to be a massive worldwide rollout of Internet-by-air. If we accept that such an appliance, as well as its associated protocols, will be IP-based in some way - we`ll have to start increasing our network growth in terms of cellular or other radio technology. Business cards will disappear - your business acquaintances` information will simply be transferred between your digital wallets.

I worry sometimes about our network capacity, especially its geographic spread, in South Africa. Generally, a lot of emphasis is currently placed on the production of content and the further development of electronic commerce facilities and processes. Our focus on growing the network, be it the land or air variety, has slackened off a bit. It is generally accepted that building network infrastructure is a thankless, low-profit activity. It`s certainly not as high-profit or as much of an immediate cash-cow as the software business, but without a high-capacity network, we will be left behind.

Of course, all electronic technology takes a long time to take root everywhere in the world. But it`s a likely assumption that there won`t be much of a bridging time between the old and the new cash economy. South Africa, without a network on which digital wallets (which I think will see introduction in the next three years) will work, might even suffer as a tourist destination - travellers will see countries without such a network as sub-standard. The notion of bringing an old-fashioned credit card or even cash won`t even exist as a notion anymore in the developed countries. And thinking that there are still places in Africa where a simple radio is regarded as a high-tech novelty can be worrying at times.

I know this will be a thought highly familiar to those who read science fiction. There, a future is often depicted where there are two economies - an affluent, electronic culture, and another, non-digital, interminably poor world. What we have to avoid in South Africa is that we automatically end up as part of the non-digital future. This is something we should do at all cost, even if it means large-scale government (or otherwise) funded rollout projects of telecommunications infrastructure. Because without it, we`ll automatically introduce two economies - that of the ever-richer affluent few, and that of everyone else.

How this will work? Well, we are already experiencing the first traces of it. Affluent, mostly white, well-connected people in SA are becoming more insular, especially with the growing crime rates and other intrusions on their lifestyles. We are not becoming more egalitarian, we`re simply making sure that the support systems for our unusual lifestyles are becoming better. But we are also becoming more connected. Being connected also means that you don`t have to want for anything culturally or socially, even if you`re growing more insular. White South Africa and the developed countries are already moving closer together - just witness the speed with which we can get news these days, or the speed of ordering a book or CD from a merchant overseas. You and I may have virtually unrestricted access to these facilities, but the vast majority in SA can`t read or write, and even if they could the network may not reach them.

So here`s to Telkom (never thought I`d say this!), to the ISPs, to anyone who runs a satellite operation, and to the cellular networks. The importance of your efforts cannot be stressed or rewarded enough, no matter what anyone says. The world will only become cleverer if there is a communications network to carry our thoughts. And our cash.