Research by International Data Corporation (IDC) indicates that e-commerce initiatives have kicked the tyres of public key infrastructure (PKI). This will see the market for PKI products and certificate authority (CA) services accelerate at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61%, according to the US-based research house.
"PKI technology is moving from pilot testing into the real world of e-commerce," said Charles Kolodgy, research manager for IDC`s Internet Security program. "The push toward B2B e-commerce is fueling the adoption of PKI as a business-enablement infrastructure tool for distributed authentication, authorization, encryption, and administration. New deployments of PKI technologies, including remote access, secure messaging, content delivery, and transactional security, demonstrate the technology`s transition from the test track to the production roadway."
IDC says that the PKI marketplace has evolved quickly and is becoming an enabling technology for improved business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce. The research house believes that the 61% CAGR translates into a market growing from $281 million in 1999 to $3 billion in 2004.
Although PKI product and CA services will both grow strongly, IDC expects a role reversal between the two market segments in terms of revenue share. Whereas two-thirds of the total PKI revenue was from products in 1999, less than half of it will be from products in 2002. By 2004, CA services will represent almost 60% of total PKI revenue.
"Certificate authority services will become more pervasive as digital certificates become commodities used within PKI-enabled e-commerce applications," Kolodgy said. "As this happens, CA services will nearly quadruple from 1999 to 2001."
Despite PKI`s positive outlook, IDC believes it has limitations. PKI is a complex grouping of technologies that can still be difficult and expensive to deploy. Additionally, it is not a total security solution as it relies on PKI-enabled applications for success.
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