Quantum computing is beginning to shift from theoretical promise, to practical exploration for South African businesses, emerging as a potential tool to help organisations better manage uncertainty at scale.
This is according to new analysis from PwC, which highlights how quantum computing, particularly through hybrid quantum classical approaches, is gaining attention among local firms. It is increasingly being used as a capability that allows them to more accurately measure, model and handle uncertainty across large and complex systems, it says.
According to the study, as economic volatility, climate risk and geopolitical shifts continue to reshape the global business environment, South African organisations are facing increasing pressure to make critical decisions amid persistent uncertainty.
The latest insights from PwC position quantum computing as an emerging capability for organisations seeking to improve how they quantify and respond to risk.
According to Nico Vlok, tech strategy and architecture leader at PwC South Africa, the competitive-edge will increasingly lie in how effectively organisations interpret and act on uncertainty, rather than attempting to eliminate it.
“Uncertainty is no longer an occasional disruption; it is the context in which all major business decisions are now made. The organisations that will succeed are not those that try to eliminate uncertainty, but those that build stronger capabilities to understand it, quantify it and act on it with confidence,” notes Vlok.
Risk modelling has long relied on techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, to estimate outcomes and exposure, particularly in financial services and insurance. Metrics like value at risk and conditional value at risk remain foundational, notes the report.
However, as systems become more interconnected and tail risks more pronounced, classical computing approaches are increasingly constrained by computational intensity, especially when modelling low-probability, high-impact events, the study notes.
Probabilistic mathematics
The scale of the challenge is evident in global loss data. In 2024 alone, natural catastrophes generated losses of approximately $318 billion, with a significant protection gap where less than half of these losses were insured, according to the study.
For emerging markets like SA, these gaps are expected to widen as risk complexity intensifies.
According to PwC, quantum computing introduces a different computational paradigm rooted in probabilistic mathematics.
While not directly equivalent to economic uncertainty, these frameworks enable more efficient exploration of complex, high-dimensional problem spaces.
One technique gaining attention is quantum amplitude estimation, which could materially reduce the number of simulations required to achieve high-confidence risk estimates.
“Quantum computing may not remove uncertainty, but it has the potential to help organisations navigate it more effectively, and that could make a meaningful difference for South African business resilience in the years ahead,” continues Vlok.
“We are still in the early stages of quantum computing, and significant technical challenges remain. However, hybrid approaches allow organisations to start exploring where incremental value might emerge, without waiting for fully fault-tolerant quantum hardware.”
In practical terms, the near-term opportunity lies in hybrid architectures, according to the study.
These combine classical systems, which handle data processing and governance, with quantum processors applied selectively to computational bottlenecks, such as rare-event estimation.
This allows organisations to begin extracting incremental value without waiting for fully mature quantum hardware.
Providing use cases for quantum computing in financial services and insurance, the study notes that this emerging technology can be used for risk modelling to improve how firms estimate extreme losses.
When modelling rare, high-impact events such as major floods, droughts, or market crashes, quantum techniques such as quantum amplitude estimation can, in theory, reduce the number of simulations required to achieve statistically robust results.
For a South African insurer, this could translate into more accurate estimation of climate-related risk, better capital allocation, and improved resilience against large, correlated losses, it says.
In the energy and utilities sector, utilities and large industrial players can use hybrid quantum-classical algorithms to solve complex optimisation problems, such as load balancing, generation scheduling and transmission planning.
“Despite the promise, the technology remains in its early stages. The emphasis for South African organisations is therefore shifting toward readiness rather than immediate deployment,” the study points out.
This includes building internal literacy, identifying viable use cases and establishing governance structures that can support experimentation.
The strategic implication is clear: quantum computing is not positioned as a replacement for existing systems, but as an augmentation layer that could redefine how complex risk is understood over time, it says.
“As uncertainty continues to shape the business landscape, the ability to model, simulate and respond with greater precision may become a defining factor in long-term resilience.”
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