Tech changes could 'disrupt` IT industry

By Nicola Mawson for Gartner

Johannesburg, 03 Aug 2006

The next 10 years will see the dawn of a revolution in the way humans interact with objects, possibly leading to a disruption in the IT industry, a Gartner Symposium in Cape Town has heard.

Gartner VP Nick Jones said emerging trends in technology could cause discontinuity and disrupt business models, resulting in industry-wide shifts.

Before either a new multibillion-dollar industry is born or an old one fades away, companies could experience the discontinuity as a 5% or more increase or decrease in revenue, profits or spending for over a quarter of organisations.

Jones said it was important to plan for potential disruptions as lead-times to market were contracting. As such, he highlighted trends that are expected to make an impact within the next 10 years.

These trends are driven by technological advancements, changes in societal behaviours and change in businesses models and imperative. An indicator is when over 30% of consumers spend more than 10% of their free time or 5% of their disposable income in a different way.

A talking fridge?

One such trend is a computing revolution, which will change the way users interface with objects. In the next decade, these will move to a proactive user-interface framework that is environment-based.

Jones said this will occur in three stages, the first of which is already being experienced. The second will see new user-interfaces developed for old functions, while the third is people interacting on a technological level with their environment.

For example, if you receive a text message and happen to be standing near the fridge, this is where the message will be displayed. If you are in the bath, then the bath might read you your message.

Another trend is the move towards consumers "helping" themselves. Here he cited examples such as online banking and automation. This trend can enable businesses to save money and understand customers better, he added.

A move towards online communities not only changes the way we live, but also opens up opportunities for self-help. For example, online communities that discuss programming problems with each other, arriving at a solution, Jones said.

Gartner expects by 2015, over 100 leading companies will have made or saved at least $10 million due to collective intelligence.

Moreover, as the World Wide Web becomes the Real World Web, consumers will interact with physical objects through the power of the Web, said Jones. By 2015, it will be cost-effective to monitor an object, such as a cellphone, if it is worth more than $10 and lasts for longer than a day.

The research company says by 2010, 15% of companies will move to intent-driven customer strategies.

Jones also cited a move towards tagging in terms of attaching information to an object, which is expected to turn into a multibillion-dollar industry by 2015. This could lead to new capabilities such as a machine learning techniques for image recognition.

Companies will be able to interact with consumers on an ongoing basis, making product call backs - for example - easier to implement.