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Telecoms rules

Last week was again dominated by telecoms issues/events, a hot topic both here and in the US in particular.
Paul Booth
By Paul Booth
Johannesburg, 07 Mar 2005

I suspect telecoms will be a continuing focus across Africa for some time to come with many of the countries on the continent trying to come to grips with liberalisation/de- issues.

Highlights of the past week

* MCI has succumbed to public pressure to re-open merger talks with Qwest, which has now put a significantly better offer together that exceeds that from rival Verizon Comms by $1.25 billion.

* The tabling of the latest draft of the Convergence Bill in Parliament. This bill, which is intended to replace the current Telecommunications Act, is likely to be heavily attacked by Telkom in respect of its liberalisation stance on VANS. However, many are expecting this new legislation, as and when it is finalised, to clarify many of the contentious telecoms issues in SA following the so-called deregulation on 1 February.

Key local news

* Good interim numbers from Digicore, with both revenue and profits up over 15%; ERP.com, with both revenue and profits up about 10%; and Mustek, with revenue up 15% but profits up six-fold.

* Satisfactory interim results from Grintek with revenue up 7% and earnings up 15%.

* Mediocre interim figures from Bidoffice (part of the Bidvest Group) with revenue marginally up but trading income down.

* Interim losses from Bidvest Solutions and mymarket.com, both part of the Bidvest Group.

* Metrofile issued a negative trading update.

* Logicalis Group, a Datatec subsidiary, acquired UK`s Notability Solutions, an IBM premier , and US-

based Eisco, another IBM business specialist.

* Idion`s proposed acquisition of the business of UK-based OS Solutions, an emerging player in the systems

management software arena.

* Juniper Networks opened a South African office.

* The establishment of Micro Ices Ditiro, a data capturing black empowerment company.

* Aptronics` 51% investment in Ubushu Technologies.

* The appointments of Thomas Makore as CEO of Spescom Telecomms and Mdu Mkhonza as CEO of the Embizeni Innovation Support Centre.

* Global Technology Business Intelligence was renamed as Intellient.

* Leaf Wireless was appointed as a distributor for Sierra Wireless.

Key African news

The European IT Observatory suggests that the worldwide IT market will grow 4.2% in 2005 and 4.9% in 2006.

Paul Booth, MD, Global Research Partners

* The licensing of Zantel, Zanzibar`s mobile and fixed-line operator, for operations on Tanzania`s mainland, ending the exclusivity of the Tanzanian Telecomms Company.

* The Kenyan regulator announced that permits for the licensing of communications services will be granted to any company that meets the minimum established standard. The previous bidding process for such services has now been abolished.

* The Nigerian regulator announced that international gateway licensed operators, other than Nitel and the second national operator, could now carry third-party international traffic.

* The go-ahead for Kenya`s third mobile operator, Econet Wireless Kenya, following a high court ruling re the issuing of the licence and its authenticity.

* Bashi Gaetsaloe was appointed as country manager for Accenture in Botswana.

* The awarding of a fixed-line licence in Algeria by a consortium that includes Orascom Telecom and Telecom Egypt.

Key international news

* ITS Networks changed its name to Teleconnect.

* The end of a protracted take-over saga with Getronics finally obtaining the majority of the shares of PinkRoccade NV.

* The appointments of Didier Lombard as chairman and CEO of France Telecom, Jody Moxham as chairman and CEO of PhaseOne Comms, Phil Nyborg as CEO and president of Ziptronix, and Ren Stelloh as president and COO of PhaseOne Comms.

* The resignation of Thierry Breton as chairman and CEO of France Telecom.

* Analyst upgrades for Blue Coat Systems, CSC, CTG, Cypress Semiconductor, Fairchild Semiconductor, Hyperion Solutions, Intel, Inter-Tel, MEMC Electronic Materials, On Semiconductor, Packeteer, Retek, SafeNet, Sanmina, Take-Two Interactive Software, Texas Instruments, Tekelec, Tier Technologies, Titan and Xilinx.

* Analyst downgrades for Cablevision Systems, Checkpoint Systems, Dassault Systems, Fargo Electronics, Fiserv, Novell, Novellus, OmniVision Technologies, Powerchip Semiconductor, Sonic, Swisscom AG, Symbol Technologies, Third Wave Technologies, Tibco Software, TransAct Technologies, Verity, Viacom and Viisage Technology.

* A positive results announcement from PacificNet.

* Negative result warnings from Micron Technology, NTT DoCoMo, Tibco Software and Zomax.

* Stock repurchase announcements from Dell, ePlus and Insight Enterprises.

* Job loss announcements from Ikon, KPN and Maxtor.

* Private funding obtained for Datanomic, a data quality company.

* A private of placing of stock by 8x8 and Tripath Technology.

* A share split announcement from Orckit Comms (3:1).

* A planned IPO from Japan`s Jupiter Telecomms on Tokyo`s exchange.

* A withdrawn IPO filing from Cardtronics, an ATM network operator.

* SCO restated some of its 2004 results.

Look out for

* A possible management buyout of EDS`s consulting arm, AT Kearney.

* The SNO in Senegal was awarded to Maroc Telecom.

* Telkom SA`s possible move to acquire a 51% stake in Nigerian Telecomms (Nitel).

* Further strengthening of Siemens` SBS unit following the sale of its Sinitec subsidiary.

Research results and predictions

* According to IDC, revenue for 2003 in the unified messaging applications market grew just over 4% to $489.7 million with significant growth expected through to at least 2008.

* The European IT Observatory (EITO) suggests that the worldwide IT market will grow 4.2% in 2005 and 4.9% in 2006. EITO also indicates that Europe will account for 33.8% of the worldwide IT market in 2005.

* The total wireless LAN revenue market grew by 26% in 2004, according to Dell`Oro Group.

* Gartner says worldwide mobile phone sales grew 30% in 2004 with Nokia still retaining the number one slot with 30.7% market share.

* Worldwide network security appliance and software revenue topped $3.7 billion in 2004, up 30% from 2003, according to Infonetics Research.

* Worldwide revenue for broadband modems, routers and gateways totalled $4.6 billion in 2004, up 15% from 2003, according to Infonetics Research.

* Worldwide external disk storage systems grew 4.7% to $14.2 billion in 2004 according to IDC, with EMC maintaining the number one slot.

Stock market changes

* JSE All share index: Up 1.9%

* Nasdaq: Up 0.03%

* Top SA share movements: AST (-8%), Beget (+125%), Digicore (+11.3%), Jasco (-8%), Labat Africa (+19%), Metrofile (16.7%), Stella Vista (+20%), Trematon (+11.1%) and Vesta (-20%).

* Top international share movements: Brillian (-34.1%), Elcom international (-31.8%), Envesta Telecom (+31%), Feedback (-34.4%), Formjet (+36.1%), i2 Technologies (+30.5%), NCD (-70%), Peerless Systems (+45.3%), Tibco Software (-30.7%) and TransAct Technologies (-35.6%).

Final word

Fortune`s `World`s Most Admired` All-Star list from a technology perspective sees Dell at number three, Microsoft at four, IBM at nine, Intel at 11 and Sony at 15.

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