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Telecoms sector remains volatile

The telecommunications sector will remain volatile over the coming weeks and months, with numerous surprises in store.
Paul Booth
By Paul Booth
Johannesburg, 04 Aug 2008

The announcements of the resignations at Alcatel-Lucent and the sell-offs by Siemens dominated the international ICT news, while at home it was the Vodacom BEE deal and the resignation of the CEO of SITA, less than a year after his appointment.

Key local news of the past week.

* Satisfactory 9-month numbers from TeleMasters with revenues up 18% and profits up 8%
* Very good year-end figures from Beget Holdings with revenues up over 75% and well back in the black
* A positive trading update from Business Connexion Group
* The BEE investment by EMC SA in Enterprise Content Management Solutions (ECMS), a subsidiary of Waymark Infotech. The deal is described as a first for the South Central and East African region
* The disposal by Celcom of Vodashop Rivonia
* The announcement by Vodacom of its R7,5bn broad-based BEE transaction, the largest ever in the ICT sector, that will benefit some 50 000 black individuals
* The appointments of Nick Perkins as Sales Director for FrontRange's South African operations
* The resignations of Llewellyn Jones, CEO of SITA, following alleged political interference from several quarters including a government's CIO, who is also the deputy chairman of the SITA board.

Key African news of the past week.

* The announcement by Kuwait-based Zain that it is re-branding its entire African operations from Celtel to Zain.

Key International news of the past week

Vodacom's R7,5bn broad-based BEE transaction, the largest ever in the ICT sector, will benefit some 50 000 black individuals.

Paul Booth, MD, Global Research Partners

* The $105m acquisition by BT Group of Ribbit, an emerging Silicon Valley telecommunications group focused on internet-based business applications.
* The $23m acquisition by Forrester Research of JupiterResearch, a company smaller but very similar in nature to Forrester.
* The acquisition (51%) by Gores Group, a private equity firm, of Siemens' telecom equipment group, Siemens Enterprise Communications.
* The $340m acquisition by IBM of France-based ILOG, a software and services company specialising in applications and its Business Rules Management System (BRMS). ILOG had annuals revenues of just over $180m in the financial year that has just ended.
* The $46m acquisition by McAfee of Reconnex, a data loss prevention company.
* The acquisition by Motorola of AirDefense, a wireless LAN security provider. AirDefense software is distributed in Southern Africa by SecureData.
* The acquisition by Oracle of Global Knowledge Software (GKS), a provider of self-service training software.
* The $340m acquisition by UK-based Sophos of Germany-based Utimaco Safeway, an enterprise data security applications provider. Utimaco products are distributed in Southern Africa by Biodata IT.
* The EUR1,2bn acquisition by Japan's TDK of Germany's Epcos, a maker of electronic components, in a deal that is the largest take-over of a German company by a Japanese organisation. TDK is one of the world's largest suppliers of high-tech parts for electronic devices.
* The disposal by Siemens of most its stake in its cordless-handset unit to Germany's Arques Industries AG. The unit had about $1,25bn in sales last year and this deal comes a few days after its deal with Gores Group (see above). This unit was the last remaining telecommunications equipment business under Siemens' control.
* The announcement by Motorola that it is to split its home and mobility business unit into three distinct entities. One unit will include the cable set-top boxes operation as well as other equipment for video, Internet-based video and modems. A second entity will focus on wireless equipment sold to telecommunications carriers, whilst the third division will be concerned with next generation technologies including WiMax and LTE.
* The announcement by Siemens that it is to claim damages from eleven of its former executive board members including ex-CEOs Heinrich von Pierer and Klaus Kleinfeld over the bribery scandal that hit the company some two years ago
* Quarterly losses from JVC, Nortel Networks and Toshiba
* The resignations of Patricia Russo, CEO of Alcatel-Lucent and Serge Tchuruk, Chairman of Alcatel-Lucent. Alcatel-Lucent has struggled since its merger in November 2006 and is still in a loss-making situation.

Look out for:

* The possible merger of EarthLink, a provider of Internet access services, and Time Warner's AOL

Research results and predictions.

* According to Gartner, blade servers represent the fastest growing segment in the server market, but will be limited over the next few years by the lack of standards and continued rapid technology changes
* According to IDC, the worldwide mobile phone market grew 5,6% in Q208 to 306m shipments

Stock markets changes for the last week.

* JSE All share index: Down 1,8%
* Nasdaq: Flat
* Top SA share movements: African Cellular Towers(+15,4%), Business Connexion (+15,4%), Beget Holdings (+33,3%), Digicor (-12,9%), FoneWorx (+13,3%), Ideco (+41,9%), Labat Africa (-33,3%), SecureData (+12%), Spescom (-15,4%) and TeleMasters (+16,2%)

Final word.

It seems that the telecommunications sector will remain volatile over the coming weeks and months both from an international and local perspective, with numerous surprises in store for the market. Just watch that space.

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