There are two types of future IT predictions - hype and reality. The hyped predictions are always the tempting options to believe in, promising new innovation, exciting trends and opportunities for customers and vendors as well as new profit streams and competitive advantages.
[VIDEO]The realities are the tried and tested laws of IT. These have held true for many years, and despite minor deviations, will continue to hold true for the next year, and probably beyond.
The first, and most publicised law of the computing future is that of Moore`s Law. It simply states that computers will double in speed every 18 months. The fluctuations around this law are minimal, and it is safe to say that we will have 2GHz processors for the desktop by the third quarter of next year. Intel expects to start its transition from 0.18 micron technology to 0.13 micron in the fourth quarter, and intends to continue to ship Pentium III and 4 processors in 0.13 micron format.
Intel`s PIII mobile processors are predicted to shift to 0.13 micron in the second half of next year, and will hit the 1GHz milestone before that. The chip producer`s XScale architecture is also expected to hit production next year, delivering handheld and Internet processors that are able to alter their speeds depending on power consumption and processing power needs.
The 64-bit Itanium processor is due the first half of next year, and will probably be introduced at 733MHz and 800MHz frequencies. The McKinley, successor for the Itanium, is due for pilot release at the end of 2001.
Other processors to look forward to from Intel include the Foster, the predecessor to the Gallatin - both are 32-bit server/workstation processors. The Deerfield will follow the McKinley, and be replaced by the Madison.
Essential business tool
Another IT rule is the Telecosm law, which states that bandwidth doubles every 11 months. This is pretty important for the South African Internet economy, as it is still being hamstrung by excessive rates for what the rest of the world takes for granted - decent access to an essential business tool.
Quite frankly, I`m still waiting for e-commerce and e-business.
Jason Norwood-Young, Technology editor, ITWeb
However, the end of the Telkom monopoly is in sight. Telkom knows this too, and we should see an increase in service levels as Telkom tries to capture customer loyalty before competition is allowed into the market in mid-2002 (or 2003 if Telkom is granted an extension).
Another IT rule is that devices get smaller. This is one of the drivers behind increased functionality in handheld and cellular devices - they now have the power to do serious computing tasks, and to not utilise this potential seems a waste. The first teetering steps in this direction have met with mixed results. Palm- and Windows CE-based devices have enjoyed huge success, while Wireless Application Protocol failed to live up to expectations.
The current mobile buzzword that is slowly transforming into reality - Bluetooth - still needs to prove itself in the market, but indication are that it will receive a decent reception from users, providing the correct applications are developed to capture the imagination and credit cards of the large "road warrior" community. We can also expect Bluetooth to appear on desktops, notebooks, and standard PC peripherals - in essence, making it the next USB.
Enough of the grounded talk - let`s get to the PR fluff. Some of the following will mature into a real business benefit, while most will join the long list of "close, but no cigar" technologies that were stillborn.
Beyond e-commerce, e-business
E-services are meant to be the wave beyond e-commerce and e-business. It Internet-enables both your company and your partners`, linking you all into a great big managed system that focuses on transactional issues rather than traditional bite-sized portions of the IT pie.
Quite frankly, I`m still waiting for e-commerce and e-business. I think that e-service - first coined by Hewlett-Packard - is a little premature. It does, however, fit in nicely with another new buzzword - ERP 2.
ERP 2 comes from Gartner. It seems like a bit of an escape hatch for ERP companies which have alternatively flooded and burnt the market with their ERP products that often went over budget, over schedule, and didn`t deliver quite the value they were expected to. In fact, ERP companies are now going to their old customers and admitting that ERP alone doesn`t add value, and therefore the customer has to buy into whatever brand of ERP 2 the ex-ERP vendor is selling.
While ERP looked inwards, towards a company`s internal processes, ERP 2 is supposed to look outwards, towards customers and suppliers. Various ERP 2-style offerings include collaborative commerce (c-commerce), procurement systems, portals, tender systems, supply chain management, and even customer relationship management.
ERP 2 has the potential of seriously boosting profit for many enterprises, but, like ERP, the difficulty will lie in the implementation. Companies that will make it work are those with good implementation strategies and the skills to know what is going on, and not be railroaded by consultants and vendors who don`t truly understand the company`s business processes, and don`t have a vested interest in the company`s success.
Other exciting buzzwords to expect in next year`s advertising and PR push include:
- T-commerce: Television commerce, for the avid couch potato.
- M-commerce: Mobile commerce allows your work and financial concerns to follow you everywhere, 24-hours-a-day.
- ROO: Return on opportunity, as opposed to return on investment.
- Peer-to-peer: Intel`s incorrect use of an old term, defining parallel computing outside the box.
- Portal: A term that rightfully claimed its place in science fiction movies, and has now made its way to the science fiction world of IT.
- E-procurement: Buying pencils over the Internet.
- E-everything: We await its successor, f-everything.
Whatever the new year brings, I hope that it will deliver at least some truly innovative IT technology that will deliver a real advantage, and not fail to excite even the most hardened of IT veterans.
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