Three-fold IP traffic boom expected

Global Internet protocol (IP) traffic will increase nearly three-fold over the next four years due to more Internet users and devices, faster broadband speeds and more video viewing, according to the latest Cisco visual networking index global forecast and service adoption for 2013 to 2018.

The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region continues to be the fastest-growing IP traffic region from 2013 to 2018 with five-fold growth and a 38% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). In SA, Cisco predicts IP traffic will quadruple from 2013 to 2018, which is a CAGR of 34%.

IP video traffic will grow six-fold from 2013 to 2018 in SA, it adds, a CAGR of 44%; HD will be 10.1% of IP video traffic in 2018, up from 2.8% in 2013 (85.5% CAGR); while mobile data traffic will grow eight-fold from 2013 to 2018, a CAGR of 53%.

With the FIFA World Cup 2014 now well underway, Cisco states that tens of millions of people are viewing games and/or highlights via the Internet. Video streaming and IP broadcast of the World Cup is anticipated to generate 4.3 exabytes of Internet traffic, it says, which is three times the amount of monthly traffic generated by Brazil (this year's World Cup host country).

To place the World Cup in context, global IP traffic is expected to reach 132 exabytes per month by 2018, which is the equivalent to 8.8 billion screens streaming the FIFA World Cup final game in Ultra-HD/4K at the same time, or 5.5 billion people binge-watching "Game of Thrones" Season 4 via video-on-demand in HD or 1.5 billion watching in Ultra-HD/4K, Cisco says.

In addition, Internet traffic generated by the 60 000 people in a stadium and travelling to games is forecast to surpass the average peak-hour traffic from all 94 million smartphones in Brazil.

According to Cisco, the majority of traffic will originate from devices other than personal computers for the first time by 2018. WiFi traffic will exceed wired traffic for the first time, and HD video will generate more traffic than standard-definition video.

It predicts that there will be 147.7 million networked devices in 2018, up from 92.4 million in 2013. Fixed WiFi was 51% of total IP traffic in 2013, Cisco says, and will be 65% of total IP traffic in 2018.

WiFi and mobile-connected devices are forecasted to generate 76% of Internet traffic by 2018. WiFi will be 61%, and cellular will be 15%. Fixed traffic will be only 24% of total Internet traffic by 2018. In comparison, WiFi was 55%; cellular was 4%; and fixed was 41%.

Global broadband speeds will reach 42Mbps by 2018, states Cisco, up from 16Mbps at the end of 2013. Online video will be the fastest-growing residential Internet service growing from 1.2 billion users to 1.9 billion users by 2018.

Desktop and personal videoconferencing, it says, will be the fastest-growing business Internet service growing from 37 million users in 2013 to 238 million users by 2018. The Internet of Everything is also gaining momentum, remarks the networking services company, and there will be nearly as many machine-to-machine (M2M) modules as there are people by 2018. For example, smart cars will have nearly four M2M connections per car.

"Our first Cisco Visual Networking Index nine years ago established the zettabyte as a major milestone for global IP traffic. Today, we are firmly in the 'Zettabyte Era' and witnessing incredible innovations and shifts in the industry," says MD at Cisco South Africa, Alpheus Mangale. "It's amazing to see how, even in the four years since we hosted the World Cup on South African soil, there has been a huge growth in Internet and IP traffic, particularly in video, both locally and globally."

The Internet of Things was the buzzword at the time, notes Mangale, and soccer fans were able to use an app on their mobile phones to locate their gate, seats, police assistance or medical care at the stadia.

"This was groundbreaking technology in 2010. We have since entered the Internet of Everything era and the reality of this, together with the increasing demand for network mobility, and the emergence of 4K video is among the key trends highlighted in this year's forecast that represent significant opportunities for service providers today and in the immediate future," concludes Mangale.