The telecoms industry can probably expect 2004 to be a positive year overall, although major issues such as the second national operator (SNO) and Convergence Bill may not be resolved.
Ray Webber, spokesman for the Communication Users Association of SA (CUASA), says it is imperative for the country that the SNO issue is settled as soon as possible.
"We are still of the opinion that Telkom continues to abuse its power, so the sooner there is a rival to challenge them the better. It really is time that telecoms customers had a choice of operators."
Andre Wills, a telecoms analyst at Africa Analysis, does not, however, expect the SNO to be in a position to challenge Telkom at all this year.
"We will probably only see the SNO begin operations by the first quarter of 2005. The disparate shareholders involved in the SNO are going to take some time to forge into a single unit that will be capable of effectively challenging Telkom," say Wills.
Webber says that while CUASA really hopes to see an SNO sometime this year, "we've already waited so long for it that I don't want to run out of oxygen while holding my breath".
Clarity needed
Speaking on the Convergence Bill, Wills says there are a lot of issues that still need to be clarified.
"Clarity from the Department of Communications is especially important, because if things aren't clarified properly, we might see a bill that is too broad and undefined, which in turn could lead to legal challenges from parties adversely affected by it."
Webber agrees that CUASA's biggest fear is that it will ultimately be a watered down version of what is actually required.
"Although it is certainly a step in the right direction, the key problem is that the regulations are still in draft form. Thus, they are still likely to go through changes, but the department already wants the industry's comments - it's like asking us to play the game without writing down the rules," he says.
Wills says something that does bode well for the telecoms industry in 2004 is the fact that there are more players in the industry now, and - with rivals like Sentech coming to the fore - Telkom is finally feeling some competitive heat, which will ultimately be good for all concerned.
"Telecoms is such an enabler for the people in so many respects that I hope that opposition political parties take careful note of it and keep it on their radar screens when it comes to this year's elections," says Webber.
Driving force
Asked about the loss of communications department director-general, Andile Ngcaba (who left earlier this month) and the possibility of a new minister of communications being sworn in after the elections, Webber says he hopes these issues will not adversely affect the industry.
"Ngcaba was very much the driving force behind the Convergence Bill, so hopefully it will not lose momentum now that he is no longer around," he says.
"As for a new minister, while we have no idea who may be handed the portfolio after the elections, we are hoping it will be someone who has a passion for telecommunications."
Wills does not believe that the loss of Ngcaba will affect the industry too much, as long as the transition between director-generals is smooth.
"Obviously he will leave a hole in terms of the relationships he's built up in the lengthy time period he's been in the job, but one would hope that his replacement will be just as capable," says Wills.
He believes that replacing the current minister, Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri, after the elections could exacerbate the problems that already exist with the various licensing processes, and that the loss of both the minister and the director-general could have a serious knock-on effect for the industry.
"It's a tough call though - on one hand continuation could ensure a smooth process, but on the other, new brooms sweep clean, so new blood coming in could be just what the industry needs in order to stimulate the key issues and get things moving again."
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